The Yom Kippur intelligence failure after fifty years: what lessons can be learned?

Extensive research has been published about the failure of Israeli intelligence in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, mainly in the context of flawed analysis and strategic surprise. Fifty years after the war, the current article uses an intelligence studies lens to describe major lessons which can be learned from this failure of early warning. Such lessons include the required focus of strategic intelligence on identifying change rather than continuity, the need for explicit analytical methodology beyond inductive reasoning, the importance of integrating assessment of adversary intentions and capabilities, the risk of over-reliance on raw information, and the need for a culture encouraging contrarian thinking.

Automated summary

The article analyzes the failure of Israeli intelligence during the Yom Kippur War and highlights important lessons that can be learned from this event. These lessons include the need for strategic intelligence to focus on identifying changes, the importance of explicit analytical methodology, the integration of assessment of adversary intentions and capabilities, the risk of over-reliance on raw information, and the importance of a culture encouraging contrarian thinking.