Do Income and Employment Uncertainty Affect Couple Stability? Evidence for France During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economic uncertainty and family dynamics are strictly connected. The increasing uncertainty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic is thus likely to affect couple relationships and stability, with potential opposite effects. Using data from the nationally representative EPICOV survey, that followed individuals throughout the first year of pandemic in France, we examined separation rates and how these were associated with different measures of employment and income uncertainty, including both pre-pandemic conditions and changes occurred during and after the first lockdown in Spring 2020 in France. Our results show increased rates of separation, especially among younger people, during the 6 months after the first lockdown, and a return to rates more similar to those observed in usual times, afterwards. Individuals who were unemployed and had lower income before the beginning of the pandemic were more likely to separate soon after the lockdown, while changes in employment conditions due to the lockdown were not linked with a higher separation risk. The job protection and the income compensation provided by the French state, as well a less stigmatising effect of unemployment occurred during the covid crisis, may explain the absence of effect. Self-declared deterioration in financial condition, especially when declared by men, was associated with higher separation risk for the whole year of observation.

Automated summary

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to increased economic uncertainty, which in turn affects couple relationships. Using data from the EPICOV survey in France, this study examined separation rates and their association with employment and income uncertainty. The results showed increased separation rates, especially among younger individuals, in the 6 months after the first lockdown, but a return to normal rates afterwards. Unemployment and lower pre-pandemic income were associated with a higher separation risk, while changes in employment conditions during the lockdown were not linked to separation. Men who reported deteriorating financial conditions had a higher separation risk throughout the year.