Mapping the sociodemographic distribution and self-reported justifications for non-compliance with COVID-19 guidelines in the United Kingdom

Which population factors have predisposed people to disregard government safety guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic and what justifications do they give for this non-compliance? To address these questions, we analyse fixed-choice and free-text responses to survey questions about compliance and government handling of the pandemic, collected from tens of thousands of members of the UK public at three 6-monthly timepoints. We report that sceptical opinions about the government and mainstream-media narrative, especially as pertaining to justification for guidelines, significantly predict non-compliance. However, free text topic modelling shows that such opinions are diverse, spanning from scepticism about government competence and self-interest to full-blown conspiracy theories, and covary in prevalence with sociodemographic variables. These results indicate that attempts to counter non-compliance through argument should account for this diversity in peoples' underlying opinions, and inform conversations aimed at bridging the gap between the general public and bodies of authority accordingly.

Automated summary

By analyzing survey responses from tens of thousands of members of the UK public at three time points, we find that scepticism towards the government and mainstream media's narrative, particularly regarding the justification for safety guidelines, significantly predicts non-compliance. However, free text topic modelling reveals a diverse range of opinions, including skepticism about government competence and self-interest, as well as full-blown conspiracy theories, which vary in prevalence according to sociodemographic variables.