ENSO-driven abrupt phase shift in North Atlantic oscillation in early January

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections exhibit a strong dependency on seasonally and intraseasonally varying mean states, leading to impactful short-term variations in regional climate. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-ENSO relation is a typical example, in that its phase relationship reverses systematically between the early and late winter. Here based on observations and an ensemble of atmosphere-only climate model simulations, we reveal that this NAO phase reversal occurs synchronously in early January, showing strong abruptness. We demonstrate that this abrupt NAO phase reversal is caused by the change in ENSO-induced Rossby wave-propagating direction from northeastward to southeastward over the northeastern North American region, which is largely governed by a climatological alteration of the local jet meridional shear. We also provide evidence that the North Atlantic intrinsic eddy-low-frequency flow feedback further amplifies the NAO responses. This ENSO-related abrupt NAO change offers an avenue for intraseasonal climate forecasting in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Automated summary

Based on observations and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase reversal occurs abruptly in early January due to the change in ENSO-induced Rossby wave-propagating direction over the northeastern North American region. The study also suggests that the North Atlantic intrinsic eddy-low-frequency flow feedback amplifies the NAO responses. This abrupt NAO change offers a potential avenue for intraseasonal climate forecasting in the Euro-Atlantic region.