The Expected Dynamics of the European Offshore Wind Sector in the Climate Change Context

The objective of this present work is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the wind conditions corresponding to some important European marine energy sites by considering both historical (1979-2020) and climatological data (2021-2100). As a first step, the wind energy profile of each site is assessed using some statistical methods (e.g., Weibull parameters) and some relevant indicators for the wind sector, such as the downtime period (<3 m/s). Since the offshore industry evolves very quickly, another objective of this work was to assess the performances of some large-scale wind turbines defined via capacity productions in the range of 15-25 MW. In terms of the capacity factor, the estimated values frequently exceed 60%, reaching a maximum of 76% in some cases, in line with the expected outputs of the new wind generators. In the final part of this work, several aspects are discussed, among them being the accuracy of the RCPs datasets or the current trends involving the wind sector. The offshore wind sector represents an important pillar of the European green market, which means that the future generation of wind turbines will play an important role in the consolidation of this sector and, eventually, in the expansion to new coastal areas.

Automated summary

This study aims to provide a comprehensive picture of wind conditions at important European marine energy sites by analyzing historical and climatological data. The performance of large-scale wind turbines in the range of 15-25 MW is also assessed. The findings suggest that the predicted capacity factor of the new wind generators may exceed 60%, indicating their potential role in the consolidation and expansion of the European green market.