A Deep Learning Framework with Explainability for the Prediction of Lateral Locoregional Recurrences in Rectal Cancer Patients with Suspicious Lateral Lymph Nodes

Malignant lateral lymph nodes (LLNs) in low, locally advanced rectal cancer can cause (ipsi-lateral) local recurrences ((L)LR). Accurate identification is, therefore, essential. This study explored LLN features to create an artificial intelligence prediction model, estimating the risk of (L)LR. This retrospective multicentre cohort study examined 196 patients diagnosed with rectal cancer between 2008 and 2020 from three tertiary centres in the Netherlands. Primary and restaging T2W magnetic resonance imaging and clinical features were used. Visible LLNs were segmented and used for a multi-channel convolutional neural network. A deep learning model was developed and trained for the prediction of (L)LR according to malignant LLNs. Combined imaging and clinical features resulted in AUCs of 0.78 and 0.80 for LR and LLR, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 85.7% and 67.6%, respectively. Class activation map explainability methods were applied and consistently identified the same high-risk regions with structural similarity indices ranging from 0.772-0.930. This model resulted in good predictive value for (L)LR rates and can form the basis of future auto-segmentation programs to assist in the identification of high-risk patients and the development of risk stratification models.

Automated summary

This study developed an artificial intelligence model to predict the risk of (L)LR in rectal cancer patients by combining imaging and clinical features, providing a basis for identifying high-risk patients and developing risk stratification models.