Hematological Parameters for Predicting Mortality in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

(1) Introduction: COPD is a common and serious condition affecting a significant proportion of the population globally. Patients often suffer from exacerbations which lead to the worsening of their health status and respiratory function, and can often lead to death. Quick and cheap investigations are required that are capable of predicting mortality in patients with acute exacerbations that can be applied in low resource settings. (2) Materials and methods: This was a retrospective study carried out using hospital records of patients admitted for AECOPD from 1 January 2017 to 30 November 2022. Chi-square test (for sex) and Student's t-test were used to look for significant associations. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were plotted and Area Under Curve (AUC) values were calculated for various hematological parameters. Youden's J was used to identify the ideal cut-off with optimal sensitivity and specificity. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify independent hematological predictors of mortality. Kaplan-Meir survival plots for neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) with the optimal cut-off were plotted. (3) Results: Amongst the 500 patients, 42 died while 458 survived, giving a mortality rate of 8.4%. NLR had the strongest association with mortality. The cut-off for various parameters were: NLR 14.83 (AUC 0.73), total leukocyte count (TLC) 13,640 cells/mm(3) (AUC 0.60), absolute neutrophil count (ANC) 12,556 cells/mm(3) (AUC 0.62), derived NLR (dNLR) 9.989 (AUC 0.73), hemoglobin 11.8 mg/dL (AUC 0.59), packed cell volume (PCV) 36.6% (AUC 0.60), and platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) 451.32 (AUC 0.55). (4) Conclusions: In patients with acute exacerbation of COPD, NLR was strongly associated with mortality, followed by dNLR. Cox regression identified NLR as an independent predictor of mortality.

Automated summary

COPD is a common and serious condition with significant global impact. Quick and affordable investigations are needed to predict mortality in patients with acute exacerbations, especially in low resource settings.