Reports of deaths are an exaggeration: all-cause and NAA-test-conditional mortality in Germany during the SARS-CoV-2 era

Counts of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths have been key numbers for justifying severe political, social and economical measures imposed by authorities world-wide. A particular focus thereby was the concomitant excess mortality (EM), i.e. fatalities above the expected all-cause mortality (AM). Recent studies, inter alia by the WHO, estimated the SARS-CoV-2-related EM in Germany between 2020 and 2021 as high as 200 000. In this study, we attempt to scrutinize these numbers by putting them into the context of German AM since the year 2000. We propose two straightforward, age-cohort-dependent models to estimate German AM for the 'Corona pandemic' years, as well as the corresponding flu seasons, out of historic data. For Germany, we find overall negative EM of about -18 500 persons for the year 2020, and a minor positive EM of about 7000 for 2021, unveiling that officially reported EM counts are an exaggeration. In 2022, the EM count is about 41 200. Further, based on NAA-test-positive related death counts, we are able to estimate how many Germans have died due to rather than with CoViD-19; an analysis not provided by the appropriate authority, the RKI. Through 2020 and 2021 combined, our due estimate is at no more than 59 500. Varying NAA test strategies heavily obscured SARS-CoV-2-related EM, particularly within the second year of the proclaimed pandemic. We compensated changes in test strategies by assuming that age-cohort-specific NAA-conditional mortality rates during the first pandemic year reflected SARS-CoV-2-characteristic constants.

Automated summary

Counts of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths have been used to justify severe measures, but recent studies show that the reported excess mortality is an exaggeration. In Germany, the excess mortality for the years 2020 and 2021 is much lower than previously estimated, with a negative count of -18,500 in 2020 and a minor positive count of 7,000 in 2021. The analysis also suggests that the number of Germans who died due to, rather than with, CoViD-19 is no more than 59,500.