Trends in Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems Over Asia in 2001-2020

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently occur over Asia during the warm season, often producing intense precipitation with associated socioeconomic impacts. Here we reveal significant trends in MCS occurrence frequency and related precipitation in Asia during the warm season (March-September) in 2001-2020, using a tracking method that combines cloud and precipitation criteria with high-resolution satellite data from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission. To examine whether there are differences between MCSs of different scales, both meso-alpha scales (M alpha CSs) and meso-beta scales (M beta CSs), with horizontal scales of 200-2,000 km and 20-200 km, are tracked. The distribution pattern of frequency and related precipitation of both MaCSs and M beta CSs are quite similar and manifest positive trends over East Asia (EA) and Northeast Asia, and negative trend over Southeast Asia (SEA). The MCS precipitation trend contributes significantly to total precipitation trend, with MaCSs contributing the most. Our analysis indicates the trend in lower-tropospheric water vapor flux convergence has a similar spatial pattern to the MCS frequency and related precipitation trend. Based on an atmospheric moisture flux decomposition analysis, the water vapor flux convergence trend can largely be explained by the change in horizontal wind convergence, while the specific humidity trend driven largely by temperature change plays a minor role. The trend in wind convergence in EA and SEA is possibly related to the evident trend in the lower-tropospheric anticyclone over the western North Pacific and SEA, which might be due to the relatively stronger warming in the Indian Ocean during the past two decades.

Automated summary

We used high-resolution satellite data and a tracking method to investigate the occurrence frequency and precipitation trends of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in Asia from 2001 to 2020. Different scales of MCSs showed positive trends in East Asia and Northeast Asia, and negative trends in Southeast Asia. The precipitation trends of these MCSs significantly contributed to the total precipitation trend, with the meso-alpha scale MCSs contributing the most. The spatial distribution of water vapor flux convergence trend was similar to the MCS frequency and precipitation trend.