National resilience assessment and improvement based on multi-source data: Evidence from countries along the belt and road

National resilience is a consensus benchmark to characterize the ability of disaster resistance of a country. The occurrence of various disasters and the ravages of COVID-19 have created urgent needs in assessing and improving the national resilience of countries, especially for countries along the Belt and Road (i.e., B & R countries) with multiple disasters with high frequency and great losses. To accurately depict the national resilience profile, a three-dimensional assessment model based on multi-source data is proposed, where the diversity of losses, fusion utilization of disaster and macro-indicator data, and several refined elements are involved. Using the proposed assessment model, the national resilience of 64 B & R countries is clarified based on more than 13,000 records involving 17 types of disasters and 5 macro-indicators. However, their assessment results are not optimistic, the dimensional resilience are generally trend-synchronized and individual difference in a single dimension, and approximately one-half of countries do not obtain resilience growth over time. To further explore the applicable solutions for national resilience improvement, a coefficient-adjusted stepwise regression model with 20 macro-indicator regressors is developed based on more than 19,000 records. This study provides the quantified model support and a solution reference for national resilience assessment and improvement, which contributes to addressing the global national resilience deficit and promoting the high -quality development of B & R construction.

Automated summary

National resilience is a crucial benchmark for evaluating a country's ability to withstand disasters. This study develops a three-dimensional assessment model using multi-source data to accurately depict national resilience, involving diversity of losses, fusion utilization of disaster and macro-indicator data, and refined elements. Results show that the national resilience of countries along the Belt and Road is generally not optimistic, with synchronized dimensional resilience, significant individual differences, and limited resilience growth over time. To address this, a coefficient-adjusted stepwise regression model with 20 macro-indicator regressors is proposed as a solution. This study provides quantified model support and guidance for assessing and improving national resilience, contributing to the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.