Coupling analysis of China's urbanization and carbon emissions: example from Hubei Province

Urbanization is a process of human production and lifestyle reform as the social productive forces reach a certain level. There is a very tight coupling relationship between urbanization and energy consumption as well as carbon emissions, e.g., mutual promotion or mutual restraint. Taking Hubei Province as an example, comparative analyses between urbanization and energy consumption as well as carbon emissions are conducted based on the data from 1990 to 2012; they can be observed roughly that the overall trend is basically consistent; and in recent years, after 2000, they all show rapid growth, indicating the strong correlation. In addition, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is applied to decompose the change in carbon emissions into some influencing factors caused by urbanization. The decomposition results show that economic development has the greatest positive effect on carbon emissions, and energy intensity contributes largely to carbon emission reduction; the contribution of energy mix and gross population is not absolute and obvious due to the small change during the period of 1990-2012. To harmonize the development of urbanization with low carbon emissions, the energy development pattern and carbon dioxide (CO2) capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) strategy are proposed for Hubei Province. In the short term, new energy and renewable energy should be explored and developed, such as nuclear power and biomass, whereas for long-term interests, the development of CCUS will be a significant choice in the process of urbanization and industrialization.