Hysteretic Behavior of Global to Regional Monsoon Area Under CO2 Ramp-Up and Ramp-Down

When projecting future monsoon changes by carbon dioxide (CO2) pathway, most studies have analyzed precipitation responses without considering monsoon area (total area of monsoon domain, MA) variations. However, how MA responds to CO2 removal remains uncertain. This study evaluates MA variations and impacts in idealized CO2 ramp-up (toward CO2 quadrupling), ramp-down, and stabilized simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1. Global MA negatively overshoots (i.e., recovery with decreasing tendency beyond the original MA) during the ramp-down period due to reduced or rapidly recovered MA in several regional monsoons, including Northern and Southern Africa, South and East Asia, and South America, showing hysteresis when comparing CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down periods despite similar global warming levels. These non-linear regional MA variations come from distinct regional summer and winter precipitation variations, which are found to be mostly associated with Intertropical Convergence Zone movements and El Nino-like response. Further, regional monsoon precipitation characteristics also vary through CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down periods consistently with overall hysteresis. Changes in total monsoon precipitation resemble the distinct responses of MA. Our results suggest that regions characterized by a monsoonal climate may experience reduced seasonal rainfall variations under net-negative CO2 emissions.

Automated summary

Most studies on future monsoon changes have focused on precipitation responses to carbon dioxide (CO2) without considering variations in monsoon area (MA). This study evaluates the impacts of CO2 ramp-up, ramp-down, and stabilized simulations on MA variations, finding that regional monsoons show hysteresis in their response to CO2 levels. The variations in MA and monsoon precipitation are influenced by Intertropical Convergence Zone movements and El Nino-like response. The results suggest that regions with a monsoonal climate may experience reduced seasonal rainfall variations under net-negative CO2 emissions.