Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene

News Item Multidisciplinary Sciences

GEOLOGISTS SEEK TO DEFINE THE ANTHROPOCENE

McKenzie Prillaman

Summary: Researchers have identified nine sites that could mark a new geological era characterized by pollution and other human activities.

NATURE (2023)

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Editorial Material Environmental Sciences

Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds

Uta Kloenne et al.

Summary: Taking into account uncertainties in the cryosphere and climate warming, there is a significantly higher risk of threshold crossing in the cryosphere, even with lower emissions. This emphasizes the need to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030 in order to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2023)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

Nico Wunderling et al.

Summary: Current policies and actions are likely to cause a temporary overshoot of the Paris climate targets, leading to a global warming range that exceeds 1.5-< 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. This poses a risk to tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest. A network model analysis shows that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72%, even if long-term temperatures stabilize within the Paris range. To avoid high-end climate risks, low-temperature overshoots and stabilization at or below current levels of global warming are necessary.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2023)

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Article Thermodynamics

Energy demand estimation using a pre-processing macro-economic modelling tool for 21st century transition analyses

Dominik Keiner et al.

Summary: This study utilizes LUT-DEMAND to create comprehensive demand input data and explores various economic and demographic scenarios. The results show that macro-economic assumptions have a significant impact on the scale and trajectory of energy demand.

ENERGY (2023)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Johan Rockstroem et al.

Summary: The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are closely linked but often treated independently. This study proposes safe and just Earth system boundaries to maintain stability and minimize harm to humans from Earth system change. Findings show that justice considerations have a greater impact on setting boundaries than safety considerations.

NATURE (2023)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks

Marcos Fernandez-Martinez et al.

Summary: Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades. Here, researchers investigated the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018. They found that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally, while temporal autocorrelation decreased. Climate change, especially increasing temperature and its variability, appeared to be the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP.

NATURE (2023)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk

Joeri Rogelj et al.

SCIENCE (2023)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin

Kathryn L. Gunn et al.

Summary: Antarctic bottom water (AABW) transport in the Australian Antarctic Basin has decreased over the past decades, leading to a weakening of abyssal overturning circulation and a reduction in deep ocean oxygen content. The freshening and contraction of AABW since the 1960s have been observed but the causes and impacts of these changes are still uncertain. Observations from the Australian Antarctic Basin show a 4.0 Sv reduction in AABW transport between 1994 and 2009, during a period of strong freshening on the continental shelf. A partial recovery of 2.2 Sv in AABW transport was driven by an increase in shelf water salinity between 2009 and 2018. Over the entire study period (1994 to 2017), there was a net slowdown of -0.8 +/- 0.5 Sv decade(-1), resulting in the thinning of well-oxygenated layers and a deoxygenation rate of -3 +/- 2 mu mol kg(-1) decade(-1).

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2023)

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Editorial Material Environmental Sciences

Agrivoltaics in Color: Going From Light Spectra to Biomass

Gabriel G. Katul

Summary: Agrivoltaics (AV) offers a solution to the competition between solar energy generation and crop production for arable land. By utilizing excess light for energy production, the efficiency of photosynthesis can be maximized. A numerical model was developed to predict photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and transpiration. This commentary discusses the implications of these findings for aboveground biomass and plant micro-environment modifications.

EARTHS FUTURE (2023)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

Simon Willcock et al.

Summary: A major concern for the world's ecosystems is the possibility of collapse due to accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies of extreme events, and strengthening intersystem connections. Conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single stress may provide poor estimates of the impact of climate and human activities on ecosystems. Experiments on four models simulating ecosystems with a range of anthropogenic interactions show that collapses occur sooner under increasing levels of primary stress, but additional stresses and/or the inclusion of noise bring the collapses substantially closer to today.

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY (2023)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The social value of offsets

Ben Groom et al.

Summary: In this study, the social value of offsets (SVO) is measured as a fraction of the social cost of carbon, taking into account offset duration, non-additionality, and failure risks. The SVO is a policy-relevant indicator that can determine whether offsets are more beneficial than alternatives in an efficient net-zero policy. It also provides a means of comparing offsets to permanent carbon storage and offers applications in carbon life cycle analysis and valuation of carbon debts. The study proposes equivalence factors for different risks, permanence, and climate scenarios.

NATURE (2023)

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Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

John Bistline et al.

SCIENCE (2023)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Peter Ditlevsen et al.

Summary: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Data-driven estimators predict a potential collapse of AMOC around mid-century under the current emission scenario.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2023)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Moving subsurface carbon mineral storage forward

Eric H. Oelkers et al.

CARBON CAPTURE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (2023)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Powering an island energy system by offshore floating technologies towards 100% renewables: A case for the Maldives

Dominik Keiner et al.

Summary: Low-lying coastal areas and archipelago countries are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. This research explores the potential of floating offshore technologies to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy in challenging topographical areas.

APPLIED ENERGY (2022)

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Article Thermodynamics

Job creation during a climate compliant global energy transition across the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors by 2050

Manish Ram et al.

Summary: Driven by climate mitigation goals, countries are prioritizing low-cost renewables to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050, which will have positive impacts on future stability and growth of economies worldwide.

ENERGY (2022)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Solar, wind and logistic substitution in global energy supply to 2050-Barriers and implications

R. J. Lowe et al.

Summary: The paper explores the potential of solar PV and wind energy to dominate global primary energy supply by 2050, using simple models to demonstrate their feasibility and examining potential constraints. The results indicate that these technologies are likely to achieve global coverage after 2025 and enable net-zero CO2 emissions.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2022)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Zero air pollution and zero carbon from all energy at low cost and without blackouts in variable weather throughout the US with 100% wind-water-solar and storage

Mark Z. Jacobson et al.

Summary: This study analyzes the grid stability of the 50 U.S. states and District of Columbia in 2050-2051 after transitioning to 100% clean, renewable energy sources. The results show that the grid remains stable without any blackouts, even during extreme weather conditions in different regions. Transitioning to renewable energy does not require long-duration battery storage.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2022)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios

Gunnar Luderer et al.

Summary: The rapid cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power, and battery storage, along with climate policies like carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets, could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. This could lead to electricity accounting for nearly two-thirds of global energy use by mid-century, inducing a fundamental transformation in energy systems.

NATURE ENERGY (2022)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Stylized least-cost analysis of flexible nuclear power in deeply decarbonized electricity systems considering wind and solar resources worldwide

Lei Duan et al.

Summary: The study modeled electricity systems in different regions and found that solar and wind can provide cheaper electricity in moderate decarbonization scenarios. However, in deeply decarbonized systems, nuclear energy can compete with solar and wind, while high-quality wind resources can make it difficult for nuclear to compete. The combination of thermal heat storage and nuclear power can promote the development of wind and solar.

NATURE ENERGY (2022)

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Article Engineering, Environmental

Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts

F. Stuart Chapin et al.

Summary: Transformation towards sustainable development requires a shift in society's focus from material wealth to a vision of equitable distribution of various capitals. Changes in policy incentives and social norms can facilitate this shift. Both norms and incentives need to change interactively, based on values, system design, and agency. Catalysts for change can include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors.

AMBIO (2022)

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Article Thermodynamics

Global energy transition to 100% renewables by 2050: Not fiction, but much needed impetus for developing economies to leapfrog into a sustainable future

Manish Ram et al.

Summary: This paper discusses and responds to the feasibility of achieving 100% renewable energy transition in developing economies. The author points out the disparity in renewable energy growth between developed and developing countries and emphasizes the importance of financing. However, the paper trivializes the financing issue and uses unscientific illustrations to describe complex energy transition models. In response, the authors of another paper contextualize, clarify, and refute the raised issues.

ENERGY (2022)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Pollution and health: a progress update

Richard Fuller et al.

Summary: The Lancet Commission on pollution and health reported that pollution was responsible for 9 million premature deaths in 2015, making it the world's largest environmental risk factor for disease and premature death. Updated data from 2019 shows that pollution is still responsible for approximately 9 million deaths per year, with reductions in some types of pollution offset by increases in others. Despite efforts, little progress has been made in addressing pollution, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.

LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH (2022)

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Review Medicine, General & Internal

Climate Change, Fossil-Fuel Pollution, and Children's Health

Frederica Perera et al.

Summary: Climate change and fossil-fuel pollution have detrimental effects on children's health, with a disproportionate impact on children from communities of color and low-income communities.

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE (2022)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Mitigation of air pollution and corresponding impacts during a global energy transition towards 100% renewable energy system by 2050

Tansu Galimova et al.

Summary: This research aims to estimate the current emissions of NOx, SOx, PM2.5, and PM10 from the energy sector and identify the trends in these emissions during a global transition towards 100% renewable energy. The study shows that the total emissions from the global energy sector are projected to drop by almost 92% in 2050 compared to 2015, leading to a significant reduction in premature deaths and damage costs caused by energy sector-related air pollution. Defossilization and the shift to renewable energy sources bring immense health and economic benefits.

ENERGY REPORTS (2022)

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Review Multidisciplinary Sciences

Harnessing the potential of nature-based solutions for mitigating and adapting to climate change

Nathalie Seddon

Summary: While many organizations are adopting nature-based solutions, some are rejecting it due to uncertainties about their effectiveness and controversies surrounding their misuse in greenwashing, human rights violations, and threats to biodiversity.

SCIENCE (2022)

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Review Environmental Sciences

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

Benjamin W. Abbott et al.

Summary: Climate change poses a threat to the global permafrost domain, and protecting permafrost ecosystems is crucial for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate. Strengthened emissions reduction targets and support for local communities are necessary to preserve intact ecological communities and carbon sinks within the permafrost domain.

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE (2022)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic

Edward A. G. Schuur et al.

Summary: Understanding the release of permafrost carbon and its impact on global climate is crucial in addressing the rapid Arctic environmental change.

ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES (2022)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Trends in the global steel industry: Evolutionary projections and defossilisation pathways through power-to-steel

Gabriel Lopez et al.

Summary: Steel production is a carbon and energy intensive activity, accounting for 9% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, a fundamental change in the structure of steel production is necessary. Technological paths that utilize low-cost renewable electricity and green hydrogen can reduce the carbon intensity of steelmaking. However, the energy system consequences of fully defossilised steelmaking have not been thoroughly examined.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2022)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

David I. Armstrong Mckay et al.

Summary: This study provides a revised shortlist of global core tipping elements and regional impact tipping elements and their temperature thresholds through synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based research. The current global warming is already approaching the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges, and several tipping points may be triggered within the range of global warming set by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, urgent action is needed to mitigate climate change and develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

SCIENCE (2022)

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Article Chemistry, Physical

Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition

Rupert Way et al.

Summary: Rapidly decarbonizing the global energy system is crucial for addressing climate change. This study presents probabilistic cost forecasts for solar energy, wind energy, batteries, and electrolyzers, which indicate that a swift transition to green energy can result in substantial savings.

JOULE (2022)

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Review Computer Science, Information Systems

Review on 100% Renewable Energy System Analyses-A Bibliometric Perspective

Siavash Khalili et al.

Summary: Concerns about climate change and global warming caused by human activities and fossil fuel use have been increasing. This study reviews over 600 scientific articles on 100% renewable energy systems and analyzes the status and trends of research in this field. The results show that Europe and the USA are the dominant regions for research, and Energy and Applied Energy are the most prominent journals in terms of publication and citations. The study reveals the dynamics of the field, including a 26% annual growth rate in the number of articles in the 2010s and a significant increase in the number of authors.

IEEE ACCESS (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing

Johannes Quaas et al.

Summary: Anthropogenic aerosols have a cooling effect that has been decreasing over time, leading to an acceleration of climate change forcing.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2022)

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Review Computer Science, Information Systems

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

Christian Breyer et al.

Summary: Research on 100% renewable energy systems is a relatively new field that has found that achieving 100% renewable energy worldwide is feasible and cost-effective. Solar energy and wind power are seen as the central pillars of a sustainable energy system, and research has focused on addressing challenges such as grid congestion, energy storage, sector coupling, and climate change.

IEEE ACCESS (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Country-scale trends in air pollution and fossil fuel CO2 emissions during 2001-2018: confronting the roles of national policies and economic growth

Ruixue Lei et al.

Summary: The study found a strong connection at the continental scale between air quality, fossil fuel consumption, and economic development, but these factors can be decoupled at the national level through favorable policies.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

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Article Thermodynamics

Different investment dynamics in energy transition towards a 100% renewable energy system

Boris Hrncic et al.

Summary: The European Union has adopted a European Green Deal aiming for zero net emissions by 2050. This paper investigates the possibility of achieving a 100 % renewable energy system, using Montenegro as a case study. Results show that with energy efficiency measures, energy storage systems, and demand response balancing, a 100 % renewable energy system is achievable.

ENERGY (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere?

Katharyn A. Duffy et al.

Summary: The temperature dependence of global photosynthesis and respiration influences the strength of land carbon sink, with the average temperature of the warmest quarter exceeding the thermal maximum for photosynthesis over the past decade, leading to a potential halving of land sink strength in the future.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2021)

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Editorial Material Engineering, Environmental

Global warming triggers coral reef bleaching tipping point

Thomas J. F. Goreau et al.

AMBIO (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Negative-emissions technology portfolios to meet the 1.5??C target

O. Rueda et al.

Summary: The carbon-intensive economy led to a 1°C temperature rise, necessitating the limitation of global warming to 1.5°C and the use of negative-emissions technologies to reduce carbon dioxide. A comprehensive framework is needed to assess technology combinations to address the climate emergency.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS (2021)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Untangling global levelised cost of electricity based on multi-factor learning curve for renewable energy: Wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower and bioenergy

Yue Yao et al.

Summary: Renewable energy has become a more economic source of electricity globally, with capacity factors, installed costs, and learning effects being key drivers of cost reduction. Wind and solar costs are decreasing rapidly, while geothermal, hydropower, and bioenergy costs are more heavily influenced by site-specific characteristics and natural resource diversity.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Temporal and spatial distribution of health, labor, and crop benefits of climate change mitigation in the United States

Drew Shindell et al.

Summary: Societal benefits from climate change mitigation are realized through various pathways, with improvements in air quality and reduced heat exposure leading to significant health and productivity gains. Monetized benefits, which include avoided deaths and increased labor productivity and crop yields, are in the tens of trillions of dollars. The emphasis on localized, near-term impacts of air quality can help align policies with societal benefits and increase acceptance of mitigation measures.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Combined solar power and storage as cost-competitive and grid-compatible supply for China's future carbon-neutral electricity system

Xi Lu et al.

Summary: This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of solar photovoltaic potentials in China from 2020 to 2060, with results showing an increase in technical potential and a decrease in national average power price. The cost advantage of solar PV combined with storage could potentially provide a significant amount of grid-compatible electricity by 2060, offering a cheaper and more grid-compatible alternative to coal-fired power for China and other countries.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial

Samantha Bova et al.

Summary: Proxy reconstructions show that peak temperatures in the Holocene and the last interglacial period may have exceeded modern warmth, contradicting monotonic warming simulated by climate models. The discrepancy between model results and reconstructions undermines confidence in both, but indicates different climate dynamics between the two periods due to changes in greenhouse gas levels and ice sheet extent. The study suggests that the early Holocene was cooled by larger remnant glacial ice sheets, while rising greenhouse gas levels in the late Holocene warmed the planet. Modern global temperatures may have surpassed those of the past 12,000 years and could approach the warmth of the last interglacial period.

NATURE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

Johannes Lohmann et al.

Summary: The central elements of the climate system are at risk of crossing critical thresholds due to future greenhouse gas emissions, potentially leading to a qualitatively different climate with catastrophic consequences. System parameter changes, especially if fast enough, can induce transitions even before crossing a threshold. Chaotic dynamics in complex systems limit the predictability of critical rates of parameter change, indicating a smaller safe operating space for Earth system elements with respect to future emissions.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

Christoph Heinze et al.

Summary: Anthropogenic climate change has profound effects on ocean environmental conditions, impacting marine ecosystems in ways that may be difficult to reverse. Identifying, monitoring, and preventing these changes, including tipping points, is an ongoing research effort that requires feasible mitigation strategies based on research. Addressing high-probability high-impact ocean tipping points in combination with gradual changes is crucial to prevent compounding negative impacts on society and the Earth system.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology

Marc Jaxa-Rozen et al.

Summary: Analysis of 1,550 future energy scenarios reveals that uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) uptake is driven more by institutional differences in scenario design and modeling than by PV cost assumptions. It is suggested that increasing the diversity of models and scenario methods in IPCC assessments can better represent the multiple perspectives in the PV scenario literature.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation

Siddharth Joshi et al.

Summary: This study utilizes machine learning and geospatial analysis to conduct a high-resolution global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential, revealing its distribution and cost implications worldwide.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2021)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Transitioning to Low-Carbon Economies under the 2030 Agenda: Minimizing Trade-Offs and Enhancing Co-Benefits of Climate-Change Action for the SDGs

Gabriela Ileana Iacobuta et al.

Summary: The 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement were adopted in 2015, with strong interlinked but independently defined goals. Climate change mitigation measures directly affect most SDGs, mainly through co-benefits. Understanding relevant context dimensions facilitates policy design to enhance co-benefits and minimize trade-offs.

SUSTAINABILITY (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem

Karn Vohra et al.

Summary: The study demonstrates the significant impact of the fossil fuel component of PM2.5 on global premature mortality. The steeper concentration-response function slope at lower concentrations leads to higher estimates in Europe and North America, while the slower drop-off in slope at higher concentrations results in higher estimates in Asia.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH (2021)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Pathway to a fully sustainable energy system for Bolivia across power, heat, and transport sectors by 2050

Gabriel Lopez et al.

Summary: The study demonstrates two pathways for Bolivia's transition to a sustainable energy system, driven by solar PV and high electrification across all energy sectors. The simulations show a significant increase in electricity demand and a massive increase in solar PV capacity in Bolivia.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2021)

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Article Chemistry, Physical

The policy implications of an uncertain carbon dioxide removal potential

Neil Grant et al.

Summary: The study suggests that uncertainty in future CDR availability provides a strong rationale to increase near-term rates of decarbonization. In scenarios with high CDR uncertainty, emissions are reduced by an additional 10 GtCO(2)e in 2030 compared with scenarios that do not consider CDR uncertainty. Therefore, there is an urgent need to increase ambition in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2030 to achieve the 1.5 degree Celsius target.

JOULE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica

Robert M. DeConto et al.

Summary: The study reveals that a 3-degree C increase in global warming could lead to rapid Antarctic ice loss, contributing to a sea-level rise of around 0.5 cm per year by 2100. Strict measures are needed to limit temperature increase and slow down the pace of sea-level rise.

NATURE (2021)

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Review Multidisciplinary Sciences

Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate

Paul D. L. Ritchie et al.

Summary: This passage highlights the existence of tipping points in the climate system, where small changes could lead to substantial and irreversible alterations. Recent theories suggest that exceeding a threshold temporarily may not necessarily trigger a change in system state, especially for slow-onset tipping elements. This indicates the importance of considering timescales when assessing risks associated with overshooting tipping point thresholds.

NATURE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals

Susan M. Natali et al.

Summary: The rapid warming in the Arctic has exacerbated wildfires and thawing permafrost, leading to carbon emissions that are not fully accounted for, impacting global greenhouse gas emission budgets. There is an urgent need for international cooperation to incorporate the latest scientific knowledge on carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and wildfires, and to more aggressively reduce societal emissions to address the global climate crisis.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Niklas Boers et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

A strategy to improve expert technology forecasts

Tamara Savage et al.

Summary: Forecasts of future technologies are often inaccurate and overconfident, leading to a proposed hybrid approach that combines technical domain experts with experts on broader issues to improve accuracy. A pilot study showed that briefings on factors beyond technology led to wider forecast intervals, potentially aiding decision-makers in understanding the uncertainties of technology forecasts.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios

Philipp de Vrese et al.

Summary: This study demonstrates that when global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 degrees C, Arctic ecosystems will take centuries to adapt to such an increase, with the resulting steady-state depending on the preceding climate trajectory.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation

Falko Ueckerdt et al.

Summary: E-fuels have the potential to replace fossil fuels, but there are risks and challenges involved. While large-scale deployment may reduce costs, the sustainability and availability of E-fuels remain uncertain. Therefore, policies should cautiously support the development of E-fuels while also considering their risks.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Review Chemistry, Multidisciplinary

A review on CO2 mitigation in the Iron and Steel industry through Power to X processes

Manuel Bailera et al.

Summary: This paper presents the first systematic review of Power to X processes applied to the iron and steel industry, classifying them into five categories and comparing results from different studies. It introduces novel concepts and summarizes important research projects and pilot facilities in the field.

JOURNAL OF CO2 UTILIZATION (2021)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Plummeting costs of renewables-Are energy scenarios lagging?

Mengzhu Xiao et al.

Summary: In this article, cost assumptions for solar and wind technologies in global, regional, and national energy scenario studies were systematically compared with actual costs and recent market auction prices. It was found that future energy scenario analyses tend to underestimate the rapid cost declines of renewable technologies, leading to an underestimation of their future role and deployment levels. The recommendation was made to establish an open database for renewable technology costs to enhance the accuracy and transparency of future energy scenarios.

ENERGY STRATEGY REVIEWS (2021)

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Review Chemistry, Physical

Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

Marta Victoria et al.

Summary: Solar photovoltaics (PV) technology has become a highly cost-competitive technology capable of significantly reducing CO2 emissions. However, current scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways lack recognition of the key role this technology could play.

JOULE (2021)

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Review Chemistry, Physical

On the sustainability of lithium ion battery industry-A review and perspective

Yue Yang et al.

Summary: This paper examines technologies and research efforts in battery recycling from the perspective of economic viability and life cycle inventory. It highlights the challenges facing battery recycling and the role of battery design and circular economy in the sustainable development of battery industry.

ENERGY STORAGE MATERIALS (2021)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Global potential of green ammonia based on hybrid PV-wind power plants

Mahdi Fasihi et al.

Summary: This study investigates the global potential of green ammonia production using a combination of hybrid PV-wind power plants and conversion technologies. The results suggest that solar PV technology will dominate electricity generation by 2030, and green ammonia could potentially substitute fossil-based ammonia globally by 2040.

APPLIED ENERGY (2021)

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Article Thermodynamics

Low-cost renewable electricity as the key driver of the global energy transition towards sustainability

Dmitrii Bogdanov et al.

Summary: The article emphasizes the necessity of a rapid transformation of the global energy system, proposing a specific pathway towards renewable energy systems, which will bring important benefits such as energy savings, universal access to fresh water, and low-cost energy supply.

ENERGY (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts

Thomas A. Deetjen et al.

Summary: Research indicates that approximately 32% of US homes would benefit economically from installing a heat pump, and 70% could reduce emissions damages by doing so. The potential for heat pump adoption varies depending on factors such as electric grid, climate, baseline heating fuel, and housing characteristics.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

Simon Dietz et al.

Summary: Studies indicate that climate tipping points will increase the social cost of carbon by about 25%, with a 10% chance of doubling it. This suggests that climate tipping points will increase global economic risk and economic losses will be felt almost everywhere.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

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Review Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Investing into third generation nuclear power plants - Review of recent trends and analysis of future investments using Monte Carlo Simulation

B. Wealer et al.

Summary: This paper reviews trends in third generation nuclear power plants and analyzes global nuclear power plant investments, indicating that cost escalations continue and investing in nuclear power plants is not profitable.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2021)

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Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

Keep climate policy focused on the social cost of carbon

Joseph E. Aldy et al.

SCIENCE (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies

Wei Peng et al.

Summary: The study shows that the heterogeneity of climate policies in US states has little impact on the nationwide cost of emissions reduction, increasing costs by only about 10%.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda

Bjoern Soergel et al.

Summary: Current actions are insufficient to achieve both the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Integrated model-based analysis suggests that strong interventions and ambitious lifestyle changes are necessary for real progress. Climate policies, economic development, education, technological progress, and less resource-intensive lifestyles are crucial elements for progress, but additional sustainable development measures are needed to reach the targets.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Geography, Physical

Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level

Andy Aschwanden et al.

Summary: Accurately projecting mass loss from ice sheets is crucial, but current models may not accurately represent historical data and show overconfidence in predicted outcomes. Uncertainties in future sea level contributions from Greenland and Antarctica may be higher than reported. Investment in research must match the scale of the challenge to achieve credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level.

CRYOSPHERE (2021)

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Article Chemistry, Multidisciplinary

Technological learning for resource efficient terawatt scale photovoltaics

Jan Christoph Goldschmidt et al.

Summary: In order to achieve cost-efficient climate change mitigation, installing 20-80 TWp of photovoltaics by 2050 and 80-170 TWp by 2100 is necessary. Resource demands are expected to continue to increase until 2100, requiring technological learning to overcome resource constraints.

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE (2021)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming

Nico Wunderling et al.

Summary: With ongoing global warming, there is a heightened risk of tipping elements in the climate system triggering cascading effects with severe consequences for global climate, ecosystems, and human societies. Research shows that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are often the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator in transmitting these cascades.

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS (2021)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Sustainability footprints of a renewable carbon transition for the petrochemical sector within planetary boundaries

Angel Galan-Martin et al.

Summary: The petrochemical sector is crucial in low-carbon technologies development, but contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. By using renewable carbon pathways, emissions can be reduced, but there is a risk of exceeding biodiversity boundaries. The environmental footprint of decarbonization solutions for hard-to-abate sectors needs to be quantified.

ONE EARTH (2021)

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Article Chemistry, Multidisciplinary

Re-examining rates of lithium-ion battery technology improvement and cost decline†

Micah S. Ziegler et al.

Summary: Lithium-ion technologies are increasingly used in electrifying transportation and energy storage, showing significant potential for cost reduction and performance improvement. Research indicates that the real price of lithium-ion cells has decreased by about 97% since 1991, with estimates suggesting further declines in the future. The study highlights the potential for advancements in lithium-ion technologies' performance and cost-effectiveness.

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE (2021)

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Review Energy & Fuels

A review of pumped hydro energy storage

Andrew Blakers et al.

Summary: The need for electricity storage is increasing due to the rise of solar and wind generation, with pumped hydro storage being the dominant source. Batteries are becoming competitive for short-term storage, but pumped hydro remains the cheaper option for large-scale energy storage.

PROGRESS IN ENERGY (2021)

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Article Biodiversity Conservation

Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

Corey J. A. Bradshaw et al.

Summary: The article highlights the urgent need for action on major environmental issues that are often overlooked. It emphasizes the significant threats to the biosphere and humanity from future environmental conditions, and questions the preparedness of political and economic systems to handle predicted disasters. Scientists are urged to speak candidly and accurately about the challenges of creating a sustainable future, as lack of awareness on the scale of the problems and solutions hinders society from achieving sustainability goals.

FRONTIERS IN CONSERVATION SCIENCE (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Carbon dioxide direct air capture for effective climate change mitigation based on renewable electricity: a new type of energy system sector coupling

Christian Breyer et al.

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE (2020)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Baseload electricity and hydrogen supply based on hybrid PV-wind power plants

Mahdi Fasihi et al.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

Zeke Hausfather et al.

NATURE (2020)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Implementation of agrophotovoltaics: Techno-economic analysis of the price-performance ratio and its policy implications

Stephan Schindele et al.

APPLIED ENERGY (2020)

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Article Thermodynamics

On the road to 100% renewable energy systems in isolated islands

M. Alves et al.

ENERGY (2020)

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Article Economics

Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

S. Kozarcanin et al.

ENERGY POLICY (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

Robert Fofrich et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Interactions between changing climate and biodiversity: Shaping humanity’s future

F. Stuart Chapin et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2020)

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Review Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review

Roman Vakulchuk et al.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2020)

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Review Multidisciplinary Sciences

History, mass loss, structure, and dynamic behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Robin E. Bell et al.

SCIENCE (2020)

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Review Energy & Fuels

The justice and equity implications of the clean energy transition

Sanya Carley et al.

NATURE ENERGY (2020)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Divergent responses of soil organic carbon to afforestation

Songbai Hong et al.

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes

Ben Bronselaer et al.

NATURE (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Assessment of lithium criticality in the global energy transition and addressing policy gaps in transportation

Peter Greim et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

Noah Kaufman et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

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Editorial Material Environmental Sciences

Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections

Thomas Slater et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

S. V. Hanssen et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Differences in carbon emissions reduction between countries pursuing renewable electricity versus nuclear power

Benjamin K. Sovacool et al.

NATURE ENERGY (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off

Marta Victoria et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Human Health and Economic Costs of Air Pollution in Utah: An Expert Assessment

Isabella M. Errigo et al.

ATMOSPHERE (2020)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Nitrous oxide emissions from permafrost-affected soils

Carolina Voigt et al.

NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2020)

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Article Environmental Studies

Does natural gas fuel civil war? Rethinking energy security, international relations, and fossil-fuel conflict

Belgin San-Akca et al.

ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE (2020)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Future challenges for photovoltaic manufacturing at the terawatt level

P. J. Verlinden

JOURNAL OF RENEWABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Assessing the health impacts of electric vehicles through air pollution in the United States

Ernani F. Choma et al.

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat

Michalea D. King et al.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2020)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Malte Meinshausen et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2020)

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Article Environmental Studies

Destined for decline? Examining nuclear energy from a technological innovation systems perspective

Jochen Markard et al.

ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE (2020)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Discourses of climate delay

William F. Lamb et al.

GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY (2020)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Inter-sectoral effects of high renewable energy share in global energy system

Esa Pursiheimo et al.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2019)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Tracing the climate signal: mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase

Torben Rojle Christensen et al.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2019)

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Review Energy & Fuels

A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS

Ajay Gambhir et al.

ENERGIES (2019)

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Article Thermodynamics

Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems

Kenneth Hansen et al.

ENERGY (2019)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5°C climate target

Dan Tong et al.

NATURE (2019)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Human domination of the global water cycle absent from depictions and perceptions

Benjamin W. Abbott et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2019)

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Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy

Nancy M. Haegel et al.

SCIENCE (2019)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways

Giulia Realmonte et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2019)

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Article Medicine, General & Internal

Particulate matter air pollution and national and county life expectancy loss in the USA: A spatiotemporal analysis

James E. Bennett et al.

PLOS MEDICINE (2019)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels

Drew Shindell et al.

NATURE (2019)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

Siavash Khalili et al.

ENERGIES (2019)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Scott A. Kulp et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2019)

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Article Energy & Fuels

Pathway to 100% Renewable Electricity

Andrew Blakers et al.

IEEE JOURNAL OF PHOTOVOLTAICS (2019)

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Editorial Material Environmental Sciences

Recalibrating climate prospects

Amory B. Lovins et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

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Review Multidisciplinary Sciences

Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change

Sandra Diaz et al.

SCIENCE (2019)

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Review Chemistry, Multidisciplinary

The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems

Felix Creutzig et al.

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE (2019)

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Article Environmental Studies

Energy transitions or additions? Why a transition from fossil fuels requires more than the growth of renewable energy

Richard York et al.

ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE (2019)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century

Matthew J. Gidden et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2019)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Impacts of Green New Deal Energy Plans on Grid Stability, Costs, Jobs, Health, and Climate in 143 Countries

Mark Z. Jacobson et al.

ONE EARTH (2019)

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Review Environmental Studies

The geopolitics of renewable energy: Debunking four emerging myths

Indra Overland

ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE (2019)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Negative emissions-Part 3: Innovation and upscaling

Gregory F. Nemet et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Negative emissions-Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects

Sabine Fuss et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Negative emissions-Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis

Jan C. Minx et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

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Review Medicine, General & Internal

The Lancet Commission on pollution and health

Philip J. Landrigan et al.

LANCET (2018)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

A. David McGuire et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2018)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

US nuclear power: The vanishing low-carbon wedge

M. Granger Morgan et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2018)

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Review Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Response to 'Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems'

T. W. Brown et al.

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS (2018)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Joeri Rogelj et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2018)

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Review Environmental Sciences

1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner et al.

ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES, VOL 43 (2018)

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Article Economics

Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules

Goksin Kavlak et al.

ENERGY POLICY (2018)

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Article Environmental Studies

Underwriting 1.5°C: competitive approaches to financing accelerated climate change mitigation

Paul Bodnar et al.

CLIMATE POLICY (2018)

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Article Economics

Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change

Maximilian Auffhammer

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (2018)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Shilpa Rao et al.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS (2017)

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Letter Multidisciplinary Sciences

The United States can keep the grid stable at low cost with 100% clean, renewable energy in all sectors despite inaccurate claims

Mark Z. Jacobson et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2017)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Revisiting the social cost of carbon

William D. Nordhaus

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2017)

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Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

CLIMATE POLICY A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

Johan Rockstroem et al.

SCIENCE (2017)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

Delavane Diaz et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2017)

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Article Energy & Fuels

The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change

Felix Creutzig et al.

NATURE ENERGY (2017)

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Article Nuclear Science & Technology

Benchmarking of nuclear economics tools

Megan Moore et al.

ANNALS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY (2017)

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Article Biology

Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world

Stefan H. Doerr et al.

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES (2016)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Rapid carbon mineralization for permanent disposal of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions

Juerg M. Matter et al.

SCIENCE (2016)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover

Supantha Paul et al.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2016)

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Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

The cost of CO2 capture and storage

Edward S. Rubin et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GREENHOUSE GAS CONTROL (2015)

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Article Environmental Studies

An international comparative assessment of construction cost overruns for electricity infrastructure

Benjamin K. Sovacool et al.

ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE (2014)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Alvaro Calzadilla et al.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2013)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

Nico Bauer et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2012)

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Article Oceanography

Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time -: art. no. C09S05

D Archer

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS (2005)

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Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene

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