Unequal effects of SARS-CoV-2 infections: model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Cameroon (Sub-Saharan Africa) versus New York State (United States)

Worldwide, the recent SARS-CoV-2 virus disease outbreak has infected more than 691,000,000 people and killed more than 6,900,000. Surprisingly, Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered the least from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Factors that are inherent to developing countries and that contrast with their counterparts in developed countries have been associated with these disease burden differences. In this paper, we developed data-driven COVID-19 mathematical models of two 'extreme': Cameroon, a developing country, and New York State (NYS) located in a developed country. We then identified critical parameters that could be used to explain the lower-than-expected COVID-19 disease burden in Cameroon versus NYS and to help mitigate future major disease outbreaks. Through the introduction of a 'disease burden' function, we found that COVID-19 could have been much more severe in Cameroon than in NYS if the vaccination rate had remained very low in Cameroon and the pandemic had not ended.

Automated summary

Worldwide, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has infected over 691 million people and caused more than 6.9 million deaths. Surprisingly, Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Cameroon, has experienced the least impact from the pandemic. This study compares the COVID-19 burden between Cameroon, a developing country, and New York State, a developed country, using data-driven mathematical models. It identifies critical parameters that explain the lower disease burden in Cameroon and provides insights for mitigating future major outbreaks.