Prioritization of Hazardous Zones Using an Advanced Risk Management Model Combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Set Theory

Risk management plays a vital role in ensuring the safety and efficiency of tunnel construction by considering various factors, including uncertainties associated with concurrent adverse sources. One key aspect of risk management is prioritizing hazardous zones to devise an optimal countermeasure plan within time and cost constraints. This study developed an advanced tunnel risk management model, combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy set theory (FST). The model derived the impact using AHP and the probability using FST. By selectively combining causal factors that met the selection criterion, the risk of each hazardous zone was determined, enabling the prioritization of identified hazardous zones. The model application results indicated that causal combinations associated with significant tunnel convergence posed a relatively high risk. Moreover, the hazardous zones where unstable ground formations were excavated by a gripper tunnel boring machine (TBM) were revealed as the most vulnerable locations. Consequently, adopting a shield TBM or implementing ground reinforcement is recommended. Overall, the developed model effectively prioritizes identified hazardous zones and provides an optimal countermeasure plan, contributing to the overall safety and efficiency of the operations.

Automated summary

Risk management is crucial for ensuring the safety and efficiency of tunnel construction. This study developed an advanced tunnel risk management model using the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy set theory to prioritize hazardous zones and devise an optimal countermeasure plan. The model showed that significant tunnel convergence and excavation of unstable ground formations posed high risks. Adopting a shield tunnel boring machine or implementing ground reinforcement is recommended for these vulnerable locations. Overall, the developed model effectively prioritizes hazardous zones and contributes to the overall safety and efficiency of tunnel operations.