Quantifying the mental health and economic impacts of prospective Universal Basic Income schemes among young people in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study

Objective Universal Basic Income (UBI)-a largely unconditional, regular payment to all adults to support basic needs-has been proposed as a policy to increase the size and security of household incomes and promote mental health. We aimed to quantify its long-term impact on mental health among young people in England.Methods We produced a discrete-time dynamic stochastic microsimulation that models a close-to-reality open cohort of synthetic individuals (2010-2030) based on data from Office for National Statistics and Understanding Society. Three UBI scheme scenarios were simulated: Scheme 1-Starter (per week): 41 pound per child; 63 pound per adult over 18 and under 65; 190 pound per adult aged 65+; Scheme 2-Intermediate (per week): 63 pound per child; 145 pound per adult under 65; 190 pound per adult aged 65+; Scheme 3-Minimum Income Standard level (per week): 95 pound per child; 230 pound per adult under 65; 230 pound per adult aged 65+. We reported cases of anxiety and depression prevented or postponed and cost savings. Estimates are rounded to the second significant digit.Results Scheme 1 could prevent or postpone 200 000 (95% uncertainty interval: 180 000 to 210 000) cases of anxiety and depression from 2010 to 2030. This would increase to 420 000(400 000 to 440 000) for Scheme 2 and 550 000(520 000 to 570 000) for Scheme 3. Assuming that 50% of the cases are diagnosed and treated, Scheme 1 could save 330 pound million (280 pound million to 390 pound million) to National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services (PSS), over the same period, with Scheme 2 (710 pound million (640 pound million to 790 pound million)) or Scheme 3 (930 pound million (850 pound million to 1000 pound million)) producing more considerable savings. Overall, total cost savings (including NHS, PSS and patients' related costs) would range from 1.5 pound billion (1.2 pound billion to 1.8 pound billion) for Scheme 1 to 4.2 pound billion (3.7 pound billion to 4.6 pound billion) for Scheme 3.Conclusion Our modelling suggests that UBI could substantially benefit young people's mental health, producing substantial health-related cost savings.

Automated summary

Our model suggests that UBI could significantly benefit young people's mental health and result in substantial health-related cost savings.