Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study

Factors affecting the start date of the influenza epidemic season and total number of infected persons per 1,000,000 population in 47 prefectures of Japan were evaluated. This retrospective observational study (September 2014-August 2019; N = 472,740-883,804) evaluated data from a Japanese health insurance claims database. Single and multiple regression analyses evaluated the time to start of the epidemic or total infected persons per 1,000,000 population with time to absolute humidity (AH) or number of days with AH (& LE; 5.5, & LE; 6.0, & LE; 6.5, and & LE; 7.0), total visitors (first epidemic month or per day), and total population. For the 2014/15, 2015/16, and 2016/17 seasons, a weak-to-moderate positive correlation (R-2: 0.042-0.417) was observed between time to start of the epidemic and time to first day with AH below the cutoff values. Except in the 2016/17 season (R-2: 0.089), a moderate correlation was reported between time to start of the epidemic and the total population (R-2: 0.212-0.401). For all seasons, multiple regression analysis showed negative R-2 for time to start of the epidemic and total visitors and population density (positive for time to AH & LE; 7.0). The earlier the climate becomes suitable for virus transmission and the higher the human mobility (more visitors and higher population density), the earlier the epidemic season tends to begin.

Automated summary

This retrospective observational study evaluated the factors influencing the start date of the influenza epidemic season and the total number of infected persons per 1,000,000 population in 47 prefectures of Japan. Using a Japanese health insurance claims database, single and multiple regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationship between the start time of the epidemic and various factors such as absolute humidity, total visitors, and total population. The study found that the earlier the climate became suitable for virus transmission and the higher the human mobility, the earlier the epidemic season tended to begin.