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Summary: Eastern China experienced persistent regional extreme heatwaves in the summer of 2022, with different spatial features and formation mechanisms each month. Three oceans, namely the tropical Indian Ocean, Pacific, and North Atlantic, as well as local soil moisture-temperature feedback, made relative contributions to these heatwaves. However, the atmospheric circulation anomalies alone failed to explain the extreme heatwave in June, while the combined effects of ocean surface temperature anomalies and local soil moisture-temperature feedback accounted for approximately 10% of the temperature anomalies in July and August. The results highlight the significant influence of tropical Indo-Pacific and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on Eastern China's climate.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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Yi Zhang et al.
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PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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Summary: Understanding the statistical properties of extreme weather events and their underlying physical processes is crucial for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated hazards. Recent studies have shown that large deviation theory (LDT) is useful for investigating persistent extreme events and estimating long return periods. In this study, we utilize LDT and a state-of-the-art Earth system model to analyze the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave. We find that the occurrence of the heatwave can be attributed to climate variability, but its probability is greatly amplified by ongoing climate change. We also examine the spatial coherence and the role of the Rocky Mountains in influencing extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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Emily Neal et al.
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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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T. Kelder et al.
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Emily Bercos-Hickey et al.
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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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Editorial Material
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Samuel Bartusek et al.
Summary: Investigating the unprecedented 2021 heatwave in the North American Pacific Northwest revealed that a complex interaction between atmospheric dynamics, soil moisture, and temperature nonlinearly amplified the event beyond a five-sigma anomaly. These findings may contribute to a better understanding of the physical drivers of future heat extremes.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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D. L. Schumacher et al.
Summary: In late June 2021, a heatwave with unusually high temperatures occurred in western North America, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. The study finds that the physical drivers of this event are the anticyclonic circulation aloft, which converts potential energy into sensible heat, and the establishment of deep atmospheric boundary layers facilitated by mountainous terrain and dry soils. Anomalous soil moisture also contributes to the temperature rise. The research suggests that similar large-scale atmospheric circulation driven by enhanced thermodynamic drivers could result in even more extreme temperatures, particularly in a warmer climate.
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Efi Rousi et al.
Summary: Persistent heat extremes in Europe have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, and the heatwave trends in Europe have been accelerating compared to other regions. The increase in the persistence of double jet events over Eurasia is found to be a major driver of this acceleration. These findings have important implications for risk management and potential adaptation strategies.
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Geert Jan Van Oldenborgh et al.
Summary: As global warming continues, heatwaves become more frequent and intense. However, regional and local factors play a significant role in determining heatwave trends. While climate models can simulate heatwaves reasonably well, temperature variability in some regions does not align with global warming. This poses a major scientific challenge in reliably attributing and projecting heatwave changes, particularly in areas where the simulation of moisture budget, land surface changes, short-lived forcers, and soil moisture interactions is inadequate.
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Summary: The heat conditions in North America during the summer of 2021 surpassed previous heatwaves, an occurrence that many would have considered impossible under current climate conditions. The severity of this heat event was amplified by interactions between atmospheric circulation, regional soil moisture deficiency, and nonlinear drivers, potentially driven by long-term regional warming and soil drying. Global warming has transformed the likelihood of such events, with a projected increase in frequency as global temperatures continue to rise.
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Sjoukje Y. Philip et al.
Summary: In late June 2021, record-breaking temperatures in the US and Canada's Pacific Northwest resulted in increased deaths and health issues. Through a multi-model, multi-method analysis, it was found that human-induced climate change significantly influenced the probability and intensity of these extreme heat waves. The study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the significant consequences of our rapidly warming climate.
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Manuela Brunner et al.
Summary: Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. This study develops a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme local and regional flood events. The results show that reforecast ensemble pooling is an efficient approach to increase sample size and to derive robust local and regional flood estimates.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
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Noah S. Diffenbaugh et al.
Summary: Recent climate extremes have raised the question of whether some events would have been impossible without global warming. Analysis of CMIP6 climate simulations suggests that while the hottest possible events in the current climate may have been virtually impossible without historical greenhouse gas emissions, other non-greenhouse gas anthropogenic forcings have influenced the emergence of previously impossible events.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
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Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Matthias Roethlisberger et al.
Summary: This study focuses on pooling seasonal extremes across space to investigate hot summers and cold winters. By identifying spatial extreme season objects, considerable samples of analogs to extreme events are obtained, offering opportunities for systematically analyzing large samples of extreme seasons. Substantial differences in the size of extreme summer and extreme winter objects are identified.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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James E. Overland
Summary: The extreme heat event that hit the Pacific Northwest in late June 2021 caused hundreds of deaths, loss of marine life, and forests. The event was triggered by the split of the polar vortex in the Arctic, accompanied by warming, which may represent a critical state in large-scale atmospheric circulation variability.
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F. Ragone et al.
Summary: The lack of statistics in climate models hinders the analysis of extreme events, as direct sampling is not feasible due to computational costs. By using rare event algorithms, we can improve the statistics of extreme events in state-of-the-art climate models. Our study on extreme warm summers and heatwaves over France and Scandinavia shows that extreme warm summers are associated with specific hemispheric teleconnection patterns, with the most extreme summers linked to rare subseasonal heatwaves.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
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Claudia Gessner et al.
Summary: This study investigates the potential for unseen extreme heat waves by analyzing preindustrial climate model simulations. The findings suggest that historical heat waves in Chicago, Europe, and Russia could have been substantially exceeded even without further global warming. The study highlights the importance of combining different approaches to assess extreme heat wave scenarios beyond observational records for adaptation and resilience building.
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Summary: Extreme events provide insights into climate dynamics and understanding them is crucial for mitigating the impact of climate change. By applying large deviation theory to an Earth system model, researchers defined the climatology of persistent heatwaves and cold spells in key geographical regions, and assessed the impact of increased CO2 concentration on these anomalies. They also showed that high impact events in 2010 were associated with exceptional atmospheric patterns, encoded in the natural variability of the climate, proposing an approximate formula for return times of large and persistent temperature fluctuations.
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Vera Melinda Galfi et al.
Summary: The climate, a complex system, is a crucial area for deeper understanding; Large Deviation Theory can be beneficial for solving problems in climate science and geophysical fluid dynamics.
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