Feasibility assessments of a dynamical approach to compartmental modelling on graphs: Scaling limits and performance analysis *

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

New approaches to epidemic modeling on networks

Arturo Gomez et al.

Summary: In this article, two independent and novel approaches are developed to model epidemic spread in a network. These models allow for contacts with different probabilities of transmitting the disease, contrary to most existing models. Mean field type approximations are used to examine each model. The first model calculates the probability of a given vertex being infected in the late-stage effects of an epidemic outbreak, based on a mean field approximation and the number of contacts and their transmissibilities. The second model is a dynamic model analyzed using a mean field approximation, reducing the dimensionality of the system.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2023)

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Article Infectious Diseases

Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China

Wuyue Yang et al.

Summary: This study evaluates various epidemic models/methods based on different criteria and finds that most models fail to make reliable predictions before the inflection point of COVID-19 outbreaks in China. Statistical inference methods show more accuracy in the late stage of an epidemic, and certain dynamical models exhibit better performance in studying COVID-19 epidemics, potentially due to a proper trade-off between complexity and accuracy.

EPIDEMICS (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19

Mohammadali Dashtbali et al.

Summary: The study introduced two compartmental models to analyze individual behavior in spreading and controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. The comparison showed that the second model provided a better fit to the daily infected cases from Egypt, Belgium, Japan, Nigeria, Italy, and Germany. Furthermore, a vaccinated term was added to the model to predict how vaccination could control the epidemic.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2021)

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Article Physics, Multidisciplinary