Large but overlooked carbon differentiations inside China's provinces matters to mitigation strategies design: Evidence from county-level analysis

In China, wide variations exist not only among different provinces, but also inside provinces. Therefore, intensive policy adjustments are essential for promoting carbon neutral in China, which calls for a clear understanding of carbon emission disparities in each individual province. Based on panel data of 2001 county-level administrative areas from 2004 to 2017, we use Theil index and spatial regression models to measure contributions and distributions of intra-provincial carbon inequality, as well as effects of intra-provincial economic inequality on intra-provincial carbon inequality, in order to design provincial specific strategies considering carbon differentiations inside each province. Our main contributions are studying China's carbon inequality from intra- instead of inter-provincial perspectives and exploring spatial connections of carbon inequality, which has not been fully discussed in previous studies. The empirical results indicate that intra- rather than inter- provincial carbon inequality contributes the majority of China's overall carbon inequality. Intra-provincial inequality shows high levels of regional clustering and decrease from west to east, although their differences are smaller in 2017 than 2004, mainly because carbon inequality levels experience large declines in some central and western provinces. Low carbon inequality levels in eastern provinces are mainly attributed to very negative correlation between development levels and carbon intensity. Intra-provincial economic development inequality plays nonnegligible roles in intra-provincial carbon inequality in all provinces, although they are not the major driving factors in some provinces. There also exist positive spatial spillover effects of intra-provincial economic inequality on intraprovincial carbon inequality. We provide specific policy suggestions on key areas of carbon emission reductions and demand degree of economic transitions for each individual province and also evaluate effects of common prosperity measures, which have been frequently discussed recently, on intra-provincial carbon distributions.

Automated summary

Intensive policy adjustments are needed to promote carbon neutrality in China, considering the wide variations in carbon emissions among different provinces and within provinces. Intra-provincial carbon inequality contributes significantly to China's overall carbon inequality, and there are spatial connections between carbon inequality and economic inequality within provinces. Policy suggestions on carbon emission reductions and economic transitions are provided for each province.