4.6 Article

Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Recent frontiers of climate changes in East Asia at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C

Qinglong You et al.

Summary: This study reviews recent research on East Asian climate change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius. It finds that the intensity and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon are expected to increase slightly, along with enhanced water vapor transport. Other expected changes include the strengthening of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and a southward shift of the East Asian jet. However, there is high uncertainty regarding the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon. In addition, significant warming and wetting will occur in East Asia, with more pronounced climate extremes at 2 degrees Celsius warming compared to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Model simulations show substantial divergence in the regional climate changes and the location of warming hotspots. The study also highlights the importance of understanding the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios for emission policies.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Making climate projections conditional on historical observations

Aurelien Ribes et al.

Summary: Many studies have attempted to constrain climate projections based on recent observations, with limited impact until recently. By using a new climate model ensemble, improved observations, and a new statistical method, uncertainty in estimates of past and future human-induced warming has been reduced. Historical observations have narrowed uncertainty on projected future warming by approximately 50%, and previous lower estimates of 21st century warming can now be excluded.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climatic Warming and Humidification in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Multi-Scale Characteristics and Impacts on Ecological Vegetation

Qiang Zhang et al.

Summary: The study shows a significant increase in temperature and precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China over the past 60 years, leading to a decrease in dryness index and intensifying humidification. These climatic warming and humidification trends generally promote the growth of ecological vegetation.

JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Multi-Model Ensemble Projection of Precipitation Changes over China under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2°C with Consideration of Model Performance and Independence

Tong Li et al.

Summary: The PI-based weighting scheme shows notable improvements in multi-model ensemble precipitation prediction in western China, while improvements are small in eastern China. Future precipitation projections indicate a general tendency towards wetter conditions in most regions of China, particularly in terms of extreme precipitation. The spatial distribution of the PI scheme is more heterogeneous, with larger changes in extreme precipitation expected in central and eastern parts of western China under 2 degrees C global warming.

JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

Xiaoling Yang et al.

Summary: This article evaluates the performance of 20 CMIP6 models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China during 1995-2014, finding that they perform well in reproducing climatological spatial distribution and interannual variability, especially for temperature. The top-ranked ensemble BMME outperforms the AMME in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation, but shows little improvement for summer variables. The BMME projections suggest annual increases in temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century, with larger increases under SSP585 than SSP245.

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Machine learning to optimize climate projection over China with multi-model ensemble simulations

Tong Li et al.

Summary: The multi-model ensemble approach is considered the best way to achieve reliable climate projections, but designing an optimal strategy and implementing it remains a challenge. The random forest algorithm enhances the capability of capturing spatial climate characteristics in China, especially in regions with complex topography like the Tibetan Plateau.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Human Influence on the Increasing Drought Risk Over Southeast Asian Monsoon Region

Lixia Zhang et al.

Summary: The study found an increasing drought risk in the Southeast Asian monsoon region, with anthropogenic influences increasing the likelihood of extreme drought occurrences in historical simulations. Future projected severe and extreme drought risks are expected to exceed natural changes under all scenarios.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Projection of climate extremes in China, an incremental exercise from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Huanhuan Zhu et al.

Summary: This paper presents projections of climate extremes over China under global warming of different levels based on the latest CMIP6 simulations, which show that CMIP6 models outperform CMIP5 in simulating precipitation extremes. The results also indicate that the differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 are mainly due to the physical upgrading of climate models rather than emission scenarios.

SCIENCE BULLETIN (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

Huanhuan Zhu et al.

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections

Ziming Chen et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

Lukas Brunner et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Future changes in precipitation characteristics in China

Shuang-Ye Wu et al.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019)

Article Environmental Sciences

Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

Lukas Brunner et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Future Intensification of the Water Cycle with an Enhanced Annual Cycle over Global Land Monsoon Regions

Wenxia Zhang et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate

Nadja Herger et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

Nadja Herger et al.

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS (2018)

Article Environmental Sciences

Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets

Shi Chen et al.

ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH (2018)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes

Kirsten L. Findell et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes

Buwen Dong et al.

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Extreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Probabilistic Projection

Wei Li et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

Ruth Lorenz et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Brian C. O'Neill et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends

David W. J. Thompson et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Changes in Drought Characteristics over China Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Huopo Chen et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties

Benjamin M. Sanderson et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Extreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Model Evaluation

Zhihong Jiang et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China by the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles

Botao Zhou et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Editorial Material Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Reconciling warming trends

Gavin A. Schmidt et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2014)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there

Reto Knutti et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

Ed Hawkins et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over China under the SRES A1B Scenario Using 28 AOGCMs

Weilin Chen et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

THE POTENTIAL TO NARROW UNCERTAINTY IN REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS

Ed Hawkins et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles

AE Raftery et al.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2005)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method

F Giorgi et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2003)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram.

KE Taylor

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2001)