Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Understanding how the wind energy resources will change in a future climate under different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios is critical for global energy safety and economy. In this study, we evaluate the simulated wind speed over the Northern Hemisphere in global climate models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) using observation, and further show the future change of wind speed and wind energy in the Northern Hemisphere under four different GHG emission scenarios using superior models. We find that the CMIP6 models are generally better in simulating surface wind speeds over the Northern Hemisphere than CMIP5 models, in terms of spatial pattern and long-term trend. For future projection of wind speed at the end of the 21st century, models generally show a continued decreasing trend, except in SSP3-7.0 scenario. The change in wind energy and emissions are non-linearly related in different regions, as wind speed exhibits the fastest drop over Europe and Asia while shows the flattest trend over North America under SSP3-7.0. Our results suggest that higher emission scenario will undermine the magnitude of the wind energy resources and more importantly, reshape its spatial distribution over the Northern Hemisphere.

Automated summary

Understanding future changes in wind energy resources under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios is crucial for global energy security and economy. This study evaluates the performance of global climate models in simulating wind speed over the Northern Hemisphere and explores the future changes in wind speed and wind energy under various emission scenarios. The results indicate that CMIP6 models show better performance compared to CMIP5 models in simulating surface wind speeds, and future projections suggest a generally decreasing trend in wind speed except for the SSP3-7.0 scenario. It is found that the relationship between wind energy and emissions varies across regions, with the fastest decline in wind speed observed in Europe and Asia under SSP3-7.0 scenario. These findings highlight the importance of emission reduction in preserving wind energy resources and their spatial distribution over the Northern Hemisphere.