Photovoltaic power resource at the Atacama Desert under climate change

The Atacama desert is a region with exceptional conditions for solar power production. However, despite its relevance, the impact of climate change on this resource in this region has barely been studied. Here, we use regional climate models to explore how climate change will affect the photovoltaic solar power resource per square meter (PVres) in Atacama. Models project average reductions in PVres of 1.5% and 1.7% under an RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060. Under RCP2.6 and the same periods, reductions range between 1.2% and 0.5%. Also, we study the contribution to future changes in PVres of the downwelling shortwave radiation, air temperature and wind velocity. We find that the contribution from changes in wind velocity is negligible. Future changes of downwelling shortwave radiation, under the RCP8.5 scenario, cause up to 87% of the decrease of PVres for 2021-2040 and 84% for 2041-2060. Rising temperatures due to climate change are responsible for drops in PVres ranging between 13%-19% under RCP2.6 and 14%-16% under RCP8.5. We conclude that climate change has the potential to impact the PVres in the Atacama region while retaining exceptional conditions for solar power production.

Automated summary

The impact of climate change on the photovoltaic solar power resource in the Atacama desert has been studied using regional climate models. The study finds that under different scenarios, there will be reductions in PVres, with changes in downwelling shortwave radiation being the largest contributing factor. Climate change is expected to lead to a decrease in PVres in the region.