Fallow Agriculture and Climatic Stress Independently Predict Migration During Syria's 2006-10 Drought

A recent study made available data on Syrian agricultural fallowness in the 11 years preceding the onset of the Syrian Civil War. This analysis evaluates the extent to which fallow agriculture was associated with migration prior to the onset of the Syrian conflict in 2011. The findings show that fallow agriculture in 2008 is associated with out-migration from 2008 through 2010. Out-migration from 2007-2010 is also associated with fallowness in the following year. Further models show climatic stress in Syrian third-level administrative regions did not cause additional fallowness. Climatic stress and agricultural fallowness independently predict out-migration from either fallow or drought-affected regions from 2006 to 2010. The findings demonstrate independent associations between climatic stress, agricultural fallowness, and out-migration from Syria's agricultural regions before the start of the Syrian uprising in 2011. The findings also call the use of weather as an instrument for agricultural outcomes into question.

Automated summary

A recent study shows that there is an independent association between fallow agriculture and out-migration from Syrian agricultural regions before the onset of the Syrian conflict. The use of weather as an instrument for agricultural outcomes is also called into question.