Modeling and analysis of domino effect in petrochemical storage tank farms under the synergistic effect of explosion and fire

The synergistic effect of explosion and fire (SEEF) is one of the challenges of domino effect risk assessment for petrochemical storage tank farms. However, the domino effect probabilities at different orders and accident propagation patterns in storage tank farms under the SEEF are still unclear. An approach based on Bayesian networks is developed to model the propagation of domino effects in storage tank farms under the SEEF. The method accounts for the temporal and spatial synergistic effects of blast wave and fire thermal radiation in multiple accidents during domino accident escalation and the damage enhancement effect caused by the SEEF on the target units. Application of the method to a real tank farm highlights that the SEEF has a significant impact on the domino effect probabilities. Compared with only considering a single accident type, the SEEF leads to an increase in the domino effect probabilities of the tank farm. Installing water deluge systems and blast walls for all tanks at the same time is an effective safety measure to mitigate domino effects due to the SEEF. When safety resources are limited, the priority to equip critical tanks with water deluge systems and blast walls can also mitigate the domino effects.

Automated summary

This study develops a model using Bayesian networks to simulate the impact of the synergistic effect of explosion and fire on the domino effect in petrochemical storage tank farms. It reveals that the synergistic effect has a significant influence on the domino effect probabilities. Installing water deluge systems and blast walls in the tank farms can effectively mitigate domino effects caused by the synergistic effect.