Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Volume 290, Issue 2007, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.1085
Keywords
antimicrobial resistance; global health; AMR; antibiotic resistance
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This study examines the factors related to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) emergence in humans using global data. It finds a positive correlation between AMR emergence and antibiotic consumption in humans. The study also suggests that human travel may contribute to the spread of novel AMR strains.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a critical global health threat, and drivers of the emergence of novel strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in humans are poorly understood at the global scale. We examined correlates of AMR emergence in humans using global data on the origins of novel strains of AMR bacteria from 2006 to 2017, human and livestock antibiotic use, country economic activity and reporting bias indicators. We found that AMR emergence is positively correlated with antibiotic consumption in humans. However, the relationship between AMR emergence and antibiotic consumption in livestock is modified by gross domestic product (GDP), with only higher GDP countries showing a slight positive association, a finding that differs from previous studies on the drivers of AMR prevalence. We also found that human travel may play a role in AMR emergence, likely driving the spread of novel AMR strains into countries where they are subsequently detected for the first time. Finally, we used our model to generate a country-level map of the global distribution of predicted AMR emergence risk, and compared these findings against reported AMR emergence to identify gaps in surveillance that can be used to direct prevention and intervention policies.
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