Combined oil spill modelling and shoreline sensitivity analysis for contingency planning in the Irish Sea

Offshore oil spills often result in severe environmental and socio-economic consequences. This work focuses on a busy, yet poorly studied part of NW Europe, the Irish Sea, to assess the impact of future oil spills on the nearby coast. By integrating numerical models and shoreline sensitivity analyses for two confined areas, Liverpool Bay and Milford Haven, this work acknowledges wind direction and speed as principal controls on the movement of oil under winter/storm conditions and in shallow waters. Ocean currents play a secondary role, but are signif-icant in deeper waters and in low-wind summer conditions. The temporal elements used in the modelling thus stress that when the spill occurs is just as important as where. As a corollary, the fate of spilled oil is determined in this work for distinct scenarios and types. Response strategies are recommended to minimise the impact of future spills on coastal populations.

Automated summary

This study examines the impact of future oil spills on the nearby coast of the Irish Sea, focusing on the role of wind direction and speed, as well as ocean currents, in determining the movement of oil under different conditions. The timing and location of spills are found to be significant factors in the fate of spilled oil. Response strategies are recommended to minimize the impact on coastal populations.