Climate change adaptation through an integrative lens in Aotearoa New Zealand

Climate change is being felt across all human and natural systems in Aotearoa New Zealand and is projected to worsen this decade as impacts compound and cascade through natural system and sectoral dependencies. The effectiveness of adaptation is constrained by how fast greenhouse gas emissions are reduced globally, the pace of change, the frequency and progression of impacts, and the capacity of our natural, societal and political systems to respond. We explore how these systems and sectors interact with existing and projected climate change stressors by categorising climate change impacts (Trends and Events) and consequential thresholds (Thresholds), and by grouping systems and sectors by types (Typologies). This approach has identified commonalities and differences between the typologies which are illustrated with examples. Critical constraints and opportunities for adaptation have been identified to guide sector adaptation decision-making and for ongoing adaptation progress and effectiveness monitoring. Constraints are found across all sectors, and opportunities exist to address them through modelling and projections, monitoring frameworks, decision tools and measures, governance coordination and integration of the Maori worldview of the relationship between humans and nature. However, limits to adaptation exist and will increase over time unless all sectors and all nations urgently reduce their emissions.

Automated summary

Climate change impacts are worsening in New Zealand and are constrained by the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions, the pace and frequency of change, and the capacity of natural and political systems to respond. By categorizing impacts and thresholds, and grouping systems and sectors by types, we have identified commonalities and differences, and identified constraints and opportunities for adaptation. However, unless all sectors and nations urgently reduce emissions, there are limits to adaptation that will increase over time.