Dynamics of a Stochastic SVEIR Epidemic Model Incorporating General Incidence Rate and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

In this paper, considering the inevitable effects of environmental perturbations on disease transmission, we mainly study a stochastic SVEIR epidemic model in which the transmission rate satisfies the log-normal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the incidence rate is general. To analyze the dynamic properties of the stochastic model, we firstly verify that there is a unique positive global solution. By constructing several suitable Lyapunov functions and using the ergodicity of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary distribution, which means the disease will prevail. The sufficient condition for disease extinction is also given. Next, as a special case, we investigate the asymptotic stability of equilibria for the deterministic model and establish the exact expression of the probability density function of stationary distribution for the stochastic model. Finally, we calculate the mean first passage time from the initial value to the stationary state or extinction state to study the influence of environmental perturbations; meanwhile, some numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate theoretical conclusions.

Automated summary

Considering the effects of environmental perturbations on disease transmission, this paper studies a stochastic SVEIR epidemic model in which the transmission rate follows a log-normal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the incidence rate is general. The dynamics of the stochastic model are analyzed by establishing the existence of a unique positive global solution, deriving conditions for the existence of stationary distribution, and determining the conditions for disease extinction. The asymptotic stability of equilibria for the deterministic model and the probability density function of the stationary distribution for the stochastic model are also investigated.