Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over the Southern Extratropical Continents in Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss

Current climate models project that Antarctic sea ice will decrease by the end of the twenty-first century. Previous studies have suggested that Antarctic sea ice changes have impacts on atmospheric circulation and the mean state of the Southern Hemisphere. However, little is known about whether Antarctic sea ice loss may have a tangible impact on climate extremes over the southern continents and whether ocean-atmosphere coupling plays an important role in changes of climate extremes over the southern continents. In this study, we conduct a set of fully coupled and atmosphere-only model experiments forced by present and future Antarctic sea ice cover. It is found that the projected Antarctic sea ice loss by the end of the twenty-first century leads to an increase in the frequency and duration of warm extremes (especially warm nights) over the southern continents and a decrease in cold extremes over most regions. The frequency and duration of wet extremes are projected to increase over South America and Antarctica, whereas changes in dry days and the longest dry spell vary with regions. Further Antarctic sea ice loss under a quadrupling of CO2 leads to similar but larger changes. Comparison between the coupled and atmosphere-only model experiments suggests that ocean dynamics and their interac-tions with the atmosphere induced by Antarctic sea ice loss play a key role in driving the identified changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over southern continents. By comparing with global warming experiments, we find that Antarctic sea ice loss may affect temperature and precipitation extremes for some regions under greenhouse warming, especially Antarctica.

Automated summary

Current climate models project a decrease in Antarctic sea ice by the end of the twenty-first century. This study explores the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss on climate extremes over southern continents and the role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in these changes. The findings suggest that projected sea ice loss leads to an increase in warm extremes and a decrease in cold extremes over southern continents, with wet extremes increasing over South America and Antarctica. The study also highlights the importance of ocean dynamics and their interactions with the atmosphere in driving these changes.