Grey forecasting the impact of population and GDP on the carbon emission in a Chinese region

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area is a significant carbon emission center. The region's early achievement of peak carbon targets is critical to the nation's achievement of peak carbon targets. In this paper, it is proposed to use different orders of grey models to classify into three scenarios. Based on three scenarios, the grey multivariate convolutional model with new information priority accumulation is adopted to predict carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and select the scenario suitable for local development. The results show that: (1) The Beijing region has already achieved peak carbon, the Tianjin region may not reach its peak carbon target by 2030, and the Hebei region is expected to reach its peak carbon target by 2030. (2) The high rate of carbon emission reduction scenario will greatly improve the air quality of Beijing. The low-speed growth carbon emission scenario is more in line with the future development of Tianjin city. The low-rate carbon reduction scenario is more in line with the synergistic governance of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Hebei Province. (3) Beijing's population policy in the most recent years has been conducive to improving the local environment. Tianjin's medium-term population policy is more in line with the local area. Hebei's medium -term industrial structure reform is favorable to local development.

Automated summary

This study uses different orders of grey models to classify and predict carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, selecting scenarios suitable for local development. The results show that Beijing has already achieved peak carbon, Tianjin may not reach its target by 2030, and Hebei is expected to reach its target by 2030. For future development, a high rate of carbon emission reduction is ideal for improving air quality in Beijing, a low-speed growth scenario is more appropriate for Tianjin, and a low-rate carbon reduction scenario aligns with pollution and carbon reduction efforts in Hebei. Additionally, population policies in Beijing, Tianjin, and industrial structure reform in Hebei are favorable to local development.