Trends in Salmonella Dublin over time in Denmark from food and animal related isolates

Salmonella enterica serovar Dublin is highly adapted to cattle and a relatively rare cause of human infections. In Denmark S. Dublin has been endemic in the cattle population for many years. A national surveillance program in the cattle population was established at herd-level to reduce the occurrence of S. Dublin. In this study, we analyzed 421 S. Dublin genomes from cattle and food in order to determine the trend of S. Dublin's population size over time in Denmark and the impact of intervention in the cattle industry on the bacterial population size. A phylogenetic tree based on SNPs exhibited two major clades and one small cluster. All isolates were ST10. The temporal phylogenetic tree for the S. Dublin isolates showed that the most recent common ancestor was estimated to be in similar to 1980 for the two major clades. An effective population size over time based on a Bayesian skyline plot showed that the population size of S. Dublin decreased significantly between 2014 and 2019 in both major clades. This result was concordant with the decrease of infected human cases by S. Dublin in Denmark. The strengthening of a surveillance program in Denmark could be the cause for the reduction of S. Dublin's effective population size. This study showed that whole genome sequencing combined with computer intensive phylogenetic analysis estimating the effective size of the S. Dublin's population over time is a strongly relevant measure with respect to assessing the impact of control measures aiming to reduce the bacterial population in the reservoir and the risk for human infection.

Automated summary

This study analyzed 421 Salmonella Dublin genomes from cattle and food in Denmark to determine the trend of the bacterial population and the impact of intervention. The results showed a decrease in the population size of Salmonella Dublin in both cattle and humans, indicating the effectiveness of surveillance programs. Whole genome sequencing combined with phylogenetic analysis is an important tool for assessing the impact of control measures on bacterial population and human infection risk.