Future Projections of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Northern Hemisphere in the CMIP6-HighResMIP Models

How future multiple tropical cyclone events (MTCEs) could change is crucial for effective risk management and ensuring human safety, however, it remains unclear. This study projects changes in MTCEs by 2050 in the major basins of the Northern Hemisphere using high-resolution climate models. Results show a significant increase in the frequency and duration of MTCEs over the North Atlantic (NA), a notable decrease over the western North Pacific (WNP), and little change over the eastern North Pacific (ENP). The increase in MTCEs over the NA is concentrated in August-September, while the decrease over the WNP occurs in most months. In contrast, the ENP exhibits large yet insignificant seasonal variation, suggesting considerable uncertainty in this basin. Further analysis shows that mid-level vertical motion dominates the MTCE changes over the WNP, while vertical wind shear contributes the most to the NA, which may be linked to future changes in tropical convection.

Automated summary

This study uses high-resolution climate models to project changes in future multiple tropical cyclone events (MTCEs) by 2050 in the major basins of the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that there will be a significant increase in the frequency and duration of MTCEs over the North Atlantic (NA), a notable decrease over the western North Pacific (WNP), and little change over the eastern North Pacific (ENP). The increase in MTCEs over the NA is concentrated in August-September, while the decrease over the WNP occurs in most months.