Related references
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Summary: In response to the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, governments have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce its spread. This study analyzes the timing of implementing and removing these measures using a continuous-time Markov chain model. The main conclusions suggest that measures should be implemented soon after the first infections occur, should stay in place until the number of susceptible or infected individuals is close to zero, and a tier system is optimal for phasing out measures.
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Marta Giagheddu et al.
Summary: Incorporating age-specific socio-economic interactions in a SIR macroeconomic model, we examine the impact of demographic factors on the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic, its macroeconomic effects, and potential containment measures. Our findings suggest that social distancing measures targeted at the elderly, who face higher mortality risk and are not in the labor force, are the most effective in saving lives and mitigating output losses. Economic shutdowns, while generating small gains in lives saved, result in significant output losses across all types of social distancing measures. These results are supported by calibration of the model using real epidemic and economic data in a scenario exercise.
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Facundo Piguillem et al.
Summary: We quantitatively study the optimality of quarantine and testing policies and their relationship. Our main finding is that testing is a cost-efficient substitute for lockdowns, making them almost unnecessary. Testing can contain the spread of the virus without reducing output, but widespread massive testing is required. We also identify two distinct optimal lockdown policy types: suppression, aimed at eliminating the virus, and mitigation, focused on flattening the curve. The choice between them depends on the hope for a cure or the belief in virus elimination.
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Economics
Carlos Garriga et al.
Summary: This paper analyzes the optimal management of a pandemic, including stay-at-home and vaccination policies, in a dynamic model. The study finds that the optimal lockdown policies involve significant restrictions to employment, followed by gradual loosening before the peak of the epidemic. Upon the availability of a vaccine, the optimal vaccination policy emphasizes rapid vaccination at the highest possible rate. The model also highlights interesting trade-offs and factors such as hospital capacity, vaccination possibilities, and the societal value of averting deaths.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL
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Business, Finance
Yuting Fu et al.
Summary: As COVID-19 spreads globally, nations implement lockdown measures to contain the disease, raising debates on the trade-off between economic freedom and public health. Vaccination of a large population is the ultimate solution for the pandemic, but the process is complex. This study extends the SIR model to find optimal decisions balancing economy and public health during vaccination rollout, providing scientific guidance for policymakers on gradually easing lockdown measures.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
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Isabelle J. Rao et al.
Summary: This paper proposes a simple and accurate method to optimize the allocation of limited vaccine supply. By using simple analytical conditions, the allocation of vaccines can be guided over time, and the effectiveness of our method is demonstrated in an example.
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES
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Michael Freiberger et al.
Summary: During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries invested significant resources in containment measures. The primary interventions in the early stages of the pandemic were testing and identification of infected individuals, as well as social distancing measures. These measures could be targeted at specific subgroups of the population. By extending the SIR model, we can optimize the allocation of resources for quarantine and disease progression across different network nodes, leading to key findings on policy choices and their impact on disease duration and costs.
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Multidisciplinary Sciences
Alessandra Buratto et al.
Summary: This study examines the adjustment of lockdown measures after the approval of COVID-19 vaccines by considering the arrival rate of the vaccines. The findings suggest that if the vaccination pace is slow, the lockdown should be intensified, and the anticipation of vaccine arrival leads to a stricter lockdown during the period without vaccination.
Article
Engineering, Manufacturing
Ho-Yin Mak et al.
Summary: This research explores the challenges of administering two-dose COVID-19 vaccines and evaluates different rollout strategies in terms of infections, hospitalizations, and mortality. The study finds that providing the second dose reduces infections but may result in uneven vaccination patterns. Stretching the time between doses flattens the infection curve and lowers hospitalizations and mortality. Additionally, a single-dose vaccine with lower efficacy can be more effective in reducing infections and mortality compared to two-dose vaccines.
PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
(2022)
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Callum Jones et al.
Summary: The study shows that reducing consumption and office working hours can mitigate the spread of a disease during an unexpected epidemic. The planner's front-loaded mitigation measures reduce cumulative fatalities by 48% compared to 24% by private agents, although with a sharper drop in consumption. The model can explain how large variations in outcomes across regions stem from small initial differences.
REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
(2021)
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Maryam Farboodi et al.
Summary: The study found that implementing optimal policies during the COVID-19 pandemic can effectively reduce the costs of COVID-19 in the United States, and by continuing social distancing, the outbreak of the epidemic can be suppressed.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
(2021)
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Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Abdullahi Tunde Aborode et al.
Summary: Malaria and COVID-19 are both major global health issues, but the COVID-19 pandemic has posed challenges to the control and management of malaria, especially in low-income countries. Access to healthcare has been limited during the pandemic, and malaria interventions have been suspended, which may further exacerbate the burden of malaria.
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE
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Economics
Salvatore Federico et al.
Summary: The study focuses on how policymakers can control the spread of an epidemic while minimizing social costs, and identifies an optimal lockdown policy structure characterized by three distinct phases: free evolution, vigorous containment, and relaxed measures. The containment policy ensures the reproduction number multiplied by the percentage of susceptible individuals remains below one after a certain date, despite some oscillation above one in the later phase of lockdown. Fluctuations in transmission rate are found to influence the timing and duration of the optimal lockdown policy.
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS
(2021)
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Stefano Bosi et al.
Summary: The study suggests that zero lockdown is efficient when agents do not care about the share of infected individuals, while a positive lockdown is recommended beyond a critical level of altruism. The intensity of lockdown increases with the degree of altruism, and numerical simulations show that the optimal lockdown never exceeds 60%.
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Jonathan P. Caulkins et al.
Summary: This paper examines the optimal intensity and dynamic variations of lockdown strategies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic using an optimal control model. It identifies four broad strategies for lockdowns and highlights that small changes in balancing health and economic harms can significantly alter the prevailing strategy. The analysis shows that there can be constellations of parameters where different strategies perform equally well, indicating the complexity and variability in response to the epidemic.
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS
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Andrea Aspri et al.
Summary: This study extends the classic epidemic model with policy controls, exploring the trade-off between mortality reduction and economy. The introduction of realistic and drastic limitations to control policies reveals unique outcomes in different contexts.
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Summary: This study examines the optimal allocation of limited vaccines for controlling infectious diseases, considering different objectives such as minimizing new infections, deaths, life years lost, and QALYs lost. Numerical simulations show that optimal allocation strategies vary depending on the specific goal, with sensitivity analysis indicating robustness to parameter changes. The developed simple conditions can provide useful guidance for vaccine allocation decisions in communicable diseases.
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Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Yuting Fu et al.
Summary: This paper extends the classic SIR model to propose an optimal lockdown policy to balance between the economy and people's health during the COVID-19 outbreak. The analysis of simulation results provides scientific suggestions for policymakers to make critical decisions.
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