Response of mineral market to renewable energy production in the USA: Where lies the sustainable energy future

The policy dilemma regarding climate action and the rising demand of renewable energy has created opportunities for a new market of critical minerals in the USA. Nevertheless, creation of this market is susceptible to structural uncertainties within the economy. Analysis of these impacts is necessary for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 objectives, which has been a pressing policy concern in the USA. The present study addresses this policy objective by analyzing the impact of renewable energy generation on the returns on mineral market in the USA over January 1990 to July 2022. The Multivariate Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (m-QQR) method is introduced in this study to analyze the tail-dependence of the model parameters in presence of uncertainties. The findings of the study have been utilized to develop a policy framework by internalizing the externalities exerted by the uncertainties, and thereby paving a way for developing a new market for the minerals. Contributions of the present study are (a) adopting the New Market Creation approach for critical minerals, and (b) introducing m-QQR method in the literature.

Automated summary

Policy dilemma and rising demand for renewable energy present opportunities for a new critical minerals market in the USA, but structural uncertainties in the economy pose a risk. This study analyzes the impact of renewable energy generation on mineral market returns and introduces the m-QQR method to handle uncertainties. The findings contribute to developing a policy framework and new market for minerals.