Nigerians in poverty consume little wheat and wheat self-sufficiency programmes will not protect them from price shocks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Consumption patterns indicate that millets, rice, cassava and tubers are more important than imported wheat for the poorest Nigerians. Policy must reflect this by supporting coarse grain and rice production rather than any trade policy path for dislodging wheat imports. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted calls for resource diversification and wheat self-sufficiency programmes in import-dependent regions. Here we show that this approach would have minimal impact on poor Nigerians as wheat constitutes only 4% of their total food consumption and 8% of their starchy staple consumption. In contrast, millets, rice, cassava and tubers are ten times more important-highlighting the need for careful consideration of country-context consumption patterns in response to external food system shocks.

Automated summary

Consumption patterns in Nigeria indicate that millets, rice, cassava, and tubers are more important for the poorest Nigerians than imported wheat. Therefore, policies should prioritize supporting the production of coarse grain and rice instead of focusing on dislodging wheat imports.