TRANSLATE: standardized climate projections for Ireland

The TRANSLATE project was established in 2021 by Met eireann, the Irish national meteorological service, to provide standardized future climate projections for Ireland. This paper outlines the principles and main methods that were used to generate the first set of such projections and presents selected results to the end of the 21st century. Two separate ensembles of dynamically downscaled CMIP5 projections were analyzed. These produce very consistent results, increasing confidence in both, and in the methods used. Future projected fields show plenty of detail (depending on local geography), but the change maps relative to the base period are much smoother, reflecting the global climate change signal. Future forcing uncertainty is represented by 3 different emission scenarios, while model response uncertainty is represented by sub-ensembles corresponding to different climate sensitivities. The resulting matrix of distinct climate ensembles is complemented by ensembles of temperature threshold-based projections, drawn from the same underlying simulations.

Automated summary

The TRANSLATE project, established in 2021 by Met eireann, aims to provide standardized future climate projections for Ireland. This paper outlines the principles and methods used to generate the first set of such projections and presents selected results up to the end of the 21st century. Analysis of two separate ensembles of downscaled CMIP5 projections shows consistent results, increasing confidence in the methods used. The future projected fields show detail depending on local geography, while the change maps relative to the base period are smoother, reflecting the global climate change signal. Uncertainty is represented by different emission scenarios and climate sensitivities.