Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps is the fastest way to cut German gas consumption

The supply security of fossil gas has been disrupted by the Russo-Ukrainian War. Decisions to relocate the production and transport of gas have become so urgent that new long-term contracts are imminent that undermine the Paris Climate Agreement. Here, we simulate how quickly the addition of renewable electricity and the installation of heat pumps can substitute enough gas to reduce supply risk, while taking a decisive step towards meeting the Paris Agreement. Our bottom-up modelling, using Germany as an example, shows technical pathways on how installing heat pumps is one of the fastest ways to reduce gas consumption, in addition to reducing the load hours of gas-fired power plants. With targeted efforts, maximally 60% of gas from the Russian Federation can be substituted by 2025 with heat pumps and grid expansions, and enough electricity will remain available that the phase-out of coal and the entry into e-mobility will still be practicable. Installing heat pumps instead of traditional gas boilers for heating purposes could lead to a drastic reduction in the consumption of natural gas in Germany, according to numerical simulations that combine gas and electricity markets

Automated summary

The Russo-Ukrainian War has disrupted the security of fossil gas supply, leading to an urgent need for production and transport relocation that may undermine the Paris Climate Agreement. Using Germany as an example, our simulation shows that installing heat pumps is one of the fastest ways to reduce gas consumption and meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement.