Journal
MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN
Volume 108, Issue 1-2, Pages 242-262Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.03.071
Keywords
Maritime safety; Maritime risk management; Formal Safety Assessment; Winter navigation operations; Accidental oil spill; Bayesian networks
Funding
- European Union
- Academy of Finland
- BONUS, the joint Baltic Sea research and development programme [Art 185]
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The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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