Journal
JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
Volume 45, Issue 3, Pages 463-485Publisher
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/07036337.2023.2183392
Keywords
Russia; Ukraine; European Union; CSDP; public opinion; big data
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The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine had a significant impact on Europe, leading to policy changes and shifts in public opinion on security and defense matters. This article analyzes how EU public opinion has been influenced by the war, finding that the invasion has intensified existing trends rather than fundamentally changing them.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through Europe and led to rapid policy changes concomitant with variations in citizen perceptions. This article analyses how EU public opinion on security and defence matters has reacted to the war: what patterns of change and continuity can be detected, what differences are visible between Member States, and how might those be explained? Our analysis draws on big data-based sentiment analysis of news sources, reflecting a widely recognized connection between media coverage and public opinion - especially during crisis times - and complementing more traditional measurements of citizen perceptions such as opinion polls. Broadly speaking, we find that the invasion has heightened rather than fundamentally altered underlying trends. Our article contributes to a growing literature on the acceptability of European integration in security and defence, showing that publics are generally supportive of it, and regard it as complementary to NATO.
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