An interpretable machine-learned model for international oil trade network

Energy security and energy trade are the cornerstones of global economic and social development. The structural robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) plays an important role in the global economy. We integrate the machine learning optimization algorithm, game theory, and utility theory for learning an oil trade decision-making model that contains the benefit endowment and cost endowment of economies in international oil trades. We have reconstructed the network degree, clustering coefficient, and closeness of the iOTN well to verify the effectiveness of the model. In the end, policy simulations based on game theory and agent-based model are carried out in a more realistic environment. We find that export -oriented economies are more vulnerable to being affected than import-oriented economies after receiving external shocks. Moreover, the impact of the increase and decrease of trade friction costs on the international oil trade is asymmetrical, and there are significant differences between international organizations.

Automated summary

Energy security and energy trade are crucial for global economic and social development. The robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) is vital for the global economy. Using machine learning optimization algorithm, game theory, and utility theory, we developed a decision-making model for oil trade that considers the benefits and costs of economies involved. We reconstructed and analyzed the iOTN to verify the model's effectiveness. Policy simulations based on game theory and agent-based model were conducted to understand the impact of external shocks and trade friction costs on oil trade. The study found that export-oriented economies are more vulnerable and the effects of trade friction costs are asymmetrical with significant differences between international organizations.