Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model

The paper presents a model for forecasting the results of football matches, which takes into account the abilities of the players on each team. The advantage of this approach is that the dynamic nature of team strengths is incorporated into the model directly. We test our model against the bookmaker's predictions and in a Kelly-type betting strategy applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market. The new model results in significant positive returns to betting.(c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Automated summary

The paper introduces a model for predicting football match outcomes by incorporating the abilities of players into the model. The dynamic nature of team strengths is directly considered in this approach. Experimental results show that the new model leads to significant positive returns in prediction and betting.