Spatio-temporal analysis of environmental and climatic factors impacts on malaria morbidity in Ondo State, Nigeria

This study examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria epidemiological patterns consid-ering environmental(vegetation, water bodies, slope, elevation) and climatic factors (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) in Ondo State, Nigeria, from 2013 to 2017 using ArcGIS 10.4 and QGIS software. The factors influencing malaria were studied using a multi-criteria analysis (Analytical Hierarchical Process-AHP). The trend analysis revealed an increase in cases over time, indicating a significant increase in the occurrence of malaria in all study areas. The most important climatic variable impacting malaria transmission in the study was temperature. Nevertheless, other environmental and climatic factors causing transmission include vegetation, water bodies, slopes, elevation, rainfall, and relative humidity. With the exception of Okitipupa, the study identified high-risk locations (vulnerable areas/hot spots) in almost all of the local government areas, while Ondo East, Akure South, Akoko South West, and Owo are the most vulnerable areas. The findings reveal that the malaria incidence is high in the developed LGAs having more towns where temperature is higher due to several anthropogenesis activities, high population and increased land-use. Thus, in-depth epidemiological studies on malaria should be undertaken in Ondo State and other regions of Nigeria considering environmental factors impacting malaria incidence as this will enable one to ascertain the major factors influencing the disease, thereby taking adequate measures to curb the increase in incidence.

Automated summary

This study examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria epidemiological patterns in Ondo State, Nigeria from 2013 to 2017, considering environmental and climatic factors. The trend analysis revealed an increase in malaria cases over time. Temperature was found to be the most important climatic variable impacting malaria transmission. Other factors include vegetation, water bodies, slopes, elevation, rainfall, and relative humidity. High-risk locations were identified in almost all local government areas, with Ondo East, Akure South, Akoko South West, and Owo being the most vulnerable areas.