Impact of Urbanization on Cropping Structure: Empirical Evidence from China

Food security is a national priority and a cornerstone for maintaining national and regional stability. Focusing on cropping structure directly related to food security, this paper estimates the causal effect of urbanization on cropping restructuring in China. We use provincial panel data between 2000 and 2019 and threshold regression models to identify potential structural mutation characteristics. This study is an attempt to fill the cognitive gap for the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and cropping restructure. Urbanization formed agricultural labor supply constraints that significantly increased the share of sown area of grain crops, but with obvious threshold characteristics, and the effect of urbanization on cropping structure was no longer significant after crossing the threshold. Urbanization in the main grain-producing regions and main grain-selling regions promoted the adjustment of cropping structure in the direction of grain but was not significant in balanced production and marketing regions. Short-distance urbanization did not bring significant effects on cropping restructuring. We propose several suggestions for cultivated land planting structure, urbanization, and food security.

Automated summary

Food security is crucial for national and regional stability, and this study examines the impact of urbanization on cropping structure in China. Using panel data from 2000 to 2019, the study finds that urbanization has a significant effect on cropping restructuring, but with threshold characteristics. Urbanization in grain-producing and grain-selling regions promotes a shift towards grain crops, while short-distance urbanization has no significant impact. The study highlights the importance of considering the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and cropping structure.