Definition of Scenarios for Modern Power Systems with a High Renewable Energy Share

Recent environmental policies have led academic, industrial, and governmental stakeholders to plan scenarios with a high share of renewable energy sources (RES), to ensure that future energy systems, composed mostly of RES, can remain stable, match the demand during seasonal variations and are economically feasible. This article considers different energy scenarios to obtain various options in terms of size, generation technologies, and grid configuration. The scenarios are studied in the POSYTYF project and are quantified through an optimization-based algorithm, where the test grids topologies are based on specific locations in Europe, and real data related to the availability of RES, as well as the demand. Different RES technologies are considered to meet requirements of grid integration of renewables at different horizons of time, up to 100% in the most futuristic case. The optimization algorithm is applied to three scenarios. It is shown that solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind can provide the renewable backbone, but they lack flexibility to achieve a very high share in the energy mix. Solar thermal and pumped hydro become important to cover the last range of integration, as they provide high flexibility, which is crucial for high share, but they are expensive for low share.

Automated summary

This article explores different energy scenarios to achieve stability, seasonal demand matching, and economic feasibility in future energy systems dominated by renewable energy sources. The study quantifies the scenarios using an optimization-based algorithm based on real data from specific locations in Europe. The research demonstrates that solar photovoltaic and wind are the backbone of renewable energy integration, however, they lack flexibility for achieving a very high share in the energy mix. Solar thermal and pumped hydro are identified as crucial for covering the final range of integration due to their high flexibility, despite being expensive for low share.