Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Submarine Pipelines Using the Bayesian Approach

A fracture mechanics-based fatigue reliability analysis of a submarine pipeline is investigated using the Bayesian approach. The proposed framework enables the estimation of the reliability level of submarine pipelines based on limited experimental data. Bayesian updating method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters of a fracture mechanics-based fatigue model regarding different sources of uncertainties. Failure load cycle distribution and the reliability-based performance assessment of API 5L X56 submarine pipelines as a case study are estimated for three different cases. In addition, the impact of different parameters, including the stress ratio, maximum load, uncertainties of stress range and initial crack size, corrosion-enhanced factor, and also the correlation between material parameters on the reliability of the investigated submarine pipeline has been indicated through a sensitivity study. The applied approach in this study may be used for uncertainty modelling and fatigue reliability-based performance assessment of different types of submarine pipelines for maintenance and periodic inspection planning.

Automated summary

This study investigates the fracture mechanics-based fatigue reliability analysis of a submarine pipeline using the Bayesian approach. The proposed framework allows for the estimation of submarine pipeline reliability based on limited experimental data. Bayesian updating method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation are used to estimate the posterior distribution of parameters in a fracture mechanics-based fatigue model considering different uncertainties. The study evaluates failure load cycle distribution and reliability-based performance assessment of API 5L X56 submarine pipelines, and also examines the impact of various parameters on the reliability of the investigated submarine pipeline through sensitivity analysis. The approach used in this study can be applied for uncertainty modeling and fatigue reliability-based performance assessment of different types of submarine pipelines for maintenance and periodic inspection planning.