Effect of Climate Change on the Potentially Suitable Distribution Pattern of Castanopsis hystrix Miq. in China

Climate warming poses a great threat to ecosystems worldwide, which significantly affects the geographical distribution and suitable growth area of species. Taking Castanopsis hystrix Miq. as the research object, the potentially suitable cultivation regions under present and future climatic emission scenarios in China were predicted based on the MaxEnt model with 360 effective individual distributions and eight environmental variables. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) are three leading factors affecting the geographical distribution area of C. hystrix Miq. The suitable cultivation regions of C. hystrix Miq. range from 18 degrees-34 degrees N, 89 degrees-122 degrees E in central and southern China and cover an area of 261.95 x 10(4) km(2). The spatial pattern of C. hystrix Miq. will migrate to the southern region of low latitudes with a decreasing suitable area when in ssp1-2.6, and to the southwestern region of low latitudes or expand to the northeast region at high latitudes in ssp5-8.5, with an increasing suitable area; no significant change on the spatial pattern in ssp2-2.4. For ssp1-2.6 or ssp2-4.5 climate scenarios, the southern region of high latitudes will be appropriate for introducing and cultivating C. hystrix Miq., and the cultivation area will increase. For ssp5-8.5, its cultivation will increase and expand to the northeast of high-latitude areas slightly.

Automated summary

Climate warming poses a significant threat to global ecosystems, impacting the geographic distribution and suitable growth areas of species. This study focused on predicting the potential cultivation regions of Castanopsis hystrix Miq., a research object, based on the MaxEnt model and environmental variables. The key factors affecting the distribution area of C. hystrix Miq. were identified as the minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. The suitable cultivation regions were found in central and southern China, with a range of 18-34°N and 89-122°E, covering an area of 261.95 x 10(4) km(2). Under different climate scenarios, the spatial pattern of C. hystrix Miq. will migrate to different regions, with varying changes in suitable area and cultivation distribution.