Species-specific traits mediate avian demographic responses under past climate change

Anticipating species' responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking, and the traits that mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life history traits associated with changes in effective population size (N-e) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to ongoing climate warming. Using avian trait data and genomic data, the authors infer whether changes in net effective population size over time in response to climate change are correlated with multiple morphological and life history traits; they find that larger-bodied, slower-reproducing species with limited dispersal capacity are most sensitive to changes in warming and cooling climates.

Automated summary

Using whole-genome sequence data, this study reconstructs the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identifies networks of interacting morphological and life history traits associated with changes in effective population size (Ne) in response to climate warming and cooling. The results highlight the direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction, and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thus identifying the traits most likely to influence population responses to ongoing climate warming.