Mapping the habitat suitability of endemic and sub-endemic almond species in Iran under current and future climate conditions

Wild almond species are one of the main pillars of Iran's woodlands, and the land is considered one of the centers of their diversity and speciation. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of wild almonds is essential for their conservation management. Here, we established a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to determine four Iranian Prunus species' current and future distributions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s. As a result, the performance of all models was good or excellent according to the AUC value (>= 80). The permutation importance showed that solar radiation, soil depth, slope, elevation, sand, and silt content were the key environmental variables influencing the potential distributions of the four species. The results showed that, in the two studied climatic scenarios, the habitat suitability of P. haussknechtii, P. lycioides, and P. scoparia had a positive range change, while the range change was negative for P. elaeagnifolia in all the above-mentioned climatic scenarios except RCP 2.6 in the 2050s. This study highlights the need to design conservation, cultivation, and rehabilitation strategies for the species under study.

Automated summary

A maximum entropy model was used to predict the current and future distributions of four Iranian Prunus species, and it was found that solar radiation, soil depth, slope, elevation, sand, and silt content were the key environmental variables influencing their potential distributions. The results showed that the habitat suitability of P. haussknechtii, P. lycioides, and P. scoparia would have a positive range change in the studied climatic scenarios, while the range change for P. elaeagnifolia was negative in all scenarios except RCP 2.6 in the 2050s. This study emphasizes the need for conservation, cultivation, and rehabilitation strategies for these species.