Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan

We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO(2 )and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06 degrees N, 123.81 degrees E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47 degrees N, 123.01 degrees E), Japan. These two remote islands are in the downwind region of continental East Asia during winter because of the East Asian monsoon. Previous stud-ies have revealed that monthly averages of synoptic-scale variability ratios of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (delta CO2/ delta CH4) observed at HAT and YON in JFM are sensitive to changes in continental emissions. From the analysis based on an atmospheric transport model with all components of CO(2 )and CH4 fluxes, we found that the delta CO2/delta CH4 ratio was linearly related to the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China because calculating the variability ratio canceled out the transport influences. Using the simulated linear relationship, we converted the observed delta CO2/delta CH4 ratios into FFCO2/CH(4 )emission ratios in China. The change rates of the emission ratios for 2020-2022 were calculated relative to those for the preceding 9-year period (2011-2019), during which relatively stable delta CO2/delta CH4 ratios were observed. These changes in the emission ratios can be read as FFCO2 emission changes under the assumption of no interannual variations in CH4 emissions and biospheric CO2 fluxes for JFM. The resulting average changes in the FFCO2 emissions in January, February, and March 2020 were 17 +/- 8%, - 36 +/- 7%, and - 12 +/- 8%, respectively, (- 10 +/- 9% for JFM over-all) relative to 2011-2019. These results were generally consistent with previous estimates. The emission changes for January, February, and March were 18 +/- 8%, -2 +/- 10%, and 29 +/- 12%, respectively, in 2021 (15 +/- 10% for JFM overall) and 20 +/- 9%, - 3 +/- 10%, and - 10 +/- 9%, respectively, in 2022 (2 +/- 9% for JFM overall). These results suggest that the FFCO2 emissions from China rebounded to the normal level or set a new high record in early 2021 after a reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. In addition, the estimated reduction in March 2022 might be attributed to the influ-ence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections in Shanghai.

Automated summary

We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations in Japan. The method uses the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 ratios to changes in continental emissions. By analyzing the data and using an atmospheric transport model, we found a linear relationship between the delta CO2/delta CH4 ratio and the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China. Using this relationship, we converted the observed ratios into emission ratios and calculated the changes in FFCO2 emissions for 2020-2022.